RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Sep 18, 2022
Clay Martin
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
11.4
≈ in line with the league average (11.4)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
96.8
≈ in line with the league average (94.2)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
9.1
≈ in line with the league average (9.1)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 509 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playU.S. Bank Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 98 (21th of 32, 100 = league average) · 44.8 points a game in 85 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2023 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2023 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
GB offensevsMIN defense
GB offense ranks better in 5 of 6 matchups (5 by a clear margin) · MIN defense in 1
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.16
#4Stronger
+0.01
#14
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.04
#11Stronger
−0.07
#17
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 22 places
48%
#3Stronger
42%
#25
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
53%
#18
54%
slight#14
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.Widest gap · 17 places
4.4%
#3Stronger
6.4%
#20
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
0.95
#8Stronger
1.24
#19
MIN offensevsGB defense
MIN offense ranks better in 3 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · GB defense in 3 (2 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.00
#18slight
+0.06
#23
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.13
#22slight
−0.04
#26
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
38%
#19Stronger
44%
#28
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 17 places
47%
#29
54%
Stronger#12
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
6.6%
#20
6.9%
slight#16
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.94
#31
1.00
Stronger#24
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
GB offenseMIN defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors GB
+0.16#4▲
+0.01#14▲
Pass success rate
47%#10
44%#11▲
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.
9.9%#7▲
7.6%#12
Yards / dropbackfavors GB
6.7#5▲
6.2#13▲
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
8.5
7.3
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
14%
14%
Short throws (≤5 air)
48%
57%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors GB
+1.5#13▲
+3.6#27
YAC / completion
5.2#20
5.4#23
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors GB
4.4%#3▼
6.4%#20▼
Scramble rate
3.6%
4.0%
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors GB
2.1%#12
1.8%#22▼
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 42 · M 21 · R 37
L 41 · M 18 · R 41
MIN offenseGB defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.
+0.00#18▼
+0.06#23
Pass success ratefavors MIN
43%#21
48%#31
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.favors MIN
10.6%#3▲
8.9%#20▼
Yards / dropbackfavors MIN
6.4#12
6.3#18
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
7.8
7.6
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
11%
9%
Short throws (≤5 air)
50%
50%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors MIN
+3.0#7▼
+1.1#19▼
YAC / completionfavors GB
4.5#30
5.0#12
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.
6.6%#20▲
6.9%#16
Scramble rate
4.7%
7.5%
Interception rate / Interceptions forced
3.0%#27▲
1.5%#28
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 37 · M 21 · R 41
L 35 · M 22 · R 43
Green Bay Packers · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:GB scores 48% · allows 43%MIN scores 48% · allows 55%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
GBMINsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
GB5 games
Scored9.2
Allowed19.4
Pass share50%
31–70% · 157 plays
MIN4 games
Scored8.0
Allowed4.8
Pass share51%
43–60% · 113 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
GB7 games
Scored10.3
Allowed10.4
Pass share60%
54–65% · 196 plays
MIN7 games
Scored10.3
Allowed7.1
Pass share49%
36–62% · 191 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
GB5 games
Scored13.8
Allowed10.8
Pass share57%
38–75% · 161 plays
MIN6 games
Scored11.0
Allowed11.3
Pass share60%
52–68% · 139 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
GBat the half: led 5 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 5 (of 17)
2.9
2.3Q1
7.2
7.7Q2
10.2scored10.0allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.5
4.5Q3
5.3
8.3Q4
MINat the half: led 4 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 6 (of 17)
4.9
3.8Q1
4.4
6.1Q2
9.3scored9.8allowedleague 11.4
1st half
3.9
4.2Q3
6.1
3.9Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
GBMIN
10-9
Record
7-10
23.8
Points for / game
20.2
21.4
Points against / game
21.3
5-3 / 5-6
Home / road
2-6 / 5-4
L W W W W
Last 5
L L L L W
2023 season only (not a rolling window) · 17–19 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
GBMIN
0.071
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.024
0.009
EPA / play allowed
-0.021
246
Pass yards / game
276
115
Rush yards / game
91
235
Pass yards allowed
252
127
Rush yards allowed
99
0.9 / 1.0
Turnovers / takeaways
1.5 / 1.9
1.6 / 2.6
Sacks allowed / made
2.8 / 2.5
18.4
First downs / game
17.6
49
Penalty yards / game
39
+5.2 · #5 of 52
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
—
2023 season to date · 17–19 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
GBMIN
10-10 · 50%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
4-10 · 29%
Last two seasons (2022–2023), GB 36 games, MIN 35. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
14GBseriesMIN14
Avg total points
46.0
Meetings
30
Division rivals — they meet twice every season. MIN have won the last 2.
2026GB 22 at MIN 39MIN
2025GB 3 at MIN 16MIN
2025MIN 6 at GB 23GB
2024GB 25 at MIN 27MIN
2024MIN 31 at GB 29MIN
2023GB 33 at MIN 10GB
2023MIN 24 at GB 10MIN
2022MIN 17 at GB 41GB
All 30 meetings
2022GB 7 at MIN 23MIN
2021MIN 10 at GB 37GB
2021GB 31 at MIN 34MIN
2020MIN 28 at GB 22MIN
2020GB 43 at MIN 34GB
2019GB 23 at MIN 10GB
2019MIN 16 at GB 21GB
2018GB 17 at MIN 24MIN
2018MIN 29 at GB 29Tie
2017MIN 16 at GB 0MIN
2017GB 10 at MIN 23MIN
2016MIN 25 at GB 38GB
2016GB 14 at MIN 17MIN
2015MIN 20 at GB 13MIN
2015GB 30 at MIN 13GB
2014GB 24 at MIN 21GB
2014MIN 10 at GB 42GB
2013MIN 26 at GB 26Tie
2013GB 44 at MIN 31GB
2012MIN 10 at GB 24PlayoffsGB
2012GB 34 at MIN 37MIN
2012MIN 14 at GB 23GB
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Romeo DoubsWR10817.6%
Jayden ReedWR10116.4%
Dontayvion WicksWR6210.1%
Christian WatsonWR569.1%
Luke MusgraveTE538.6%
Aaron JonesRB508.1%
Tucker KraftTE498.0%
AJ DillonRB284.6%
Bo MeltonWR274.4%
Malik HeathWR243.9%
Samori ToureWR182.9%
Patrick TaylorRB172.8%
Josiah DeguaraTE81.3%
Ben SimsTE71.1%
Emanuel WilsonRB61.0%
James RobinsonRB10.2%
T.J. HockensonTE12721.0%
Jordan AddisonWR10817.8%
Justin JeffersonWR10016.5%
K.J. OsbornWR7512.4%
Brandon PowellWR447.3%
Alexander MattisonRB447.3%
Josh OliverTE284.6%
Ty ChandlerRB254.1%
Johnny MundtTE233.8%
Cam AkersRB122.0%
C.J. HamFB91.5%
Jalen NailorWR61.0%
Trishton JacksonWR40.7%
Nick MuseTE10.2%
Green Bay Packers2024–25 seasons
Minnesota Vikings2024–25 seasons
