RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Dec 31, 2023
Adrian Hill
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
13.6
≈ in line with the league average (12.6)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
111.1
≈ in line with the league average (101.8)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
10.9
≈ in line with the league average (10.2)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 492 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Roof closed · wind, cold and rain are out of playNRG Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 100 (15th of 32, 100 = league average) · 45.7 points a game in 91 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2025 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2025 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
BUF offensevsHOU defense
BUF offense ranks better in 2 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · HOU defense in 4 (2 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.20
#4
−0.16
slight#1
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.07
#1slight
−0.16
#2
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
47%
#3
34%
slight#2
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 11 places
67%
#2Stronger
55%
#13
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.Widest gap · 14 places
6.6%
#19
8.1%
Stronger#5
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.Widest gap · 16 places
1.21
#18
1.68
Stronger#2
HOU offensevsBUF defense
HOU offense ranks better in 3 of 6 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · BUF defense in 3 (2 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.03
#18
−0.05
Stronger#10
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.11
#30
+0.04
slight#29
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
39%
#18Stronger
43%
#24
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
46%
#29
58%
Stronger#19
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
5.1%
#9Stronger
6.0%
#19
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.00
#12slight
1.21
#14
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
BUF offenseHOU defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:BUF scores 48% · allows 58%HOU scores 53% · allows 49%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
BUFHOUsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
BUF5 games
Scored11.8
Allowed10.6
Pass share35%
30–40% · 152 plays
HOU10 games
Scored9.8
Allowed12.3
Pass share45%
39–51% · 278 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
BUF5 games
Scored15.0
Allowed12.0
Pass share53%
43–63% · 138 plays
HOU3 games
Scored16.3
Allowed7.3
Pass share56%
48–65% · 94 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
BUF7 games
Scored18.1
Allowed7.1
Pass share51%
45–58% · 280 plays
HOU4 games
Scored11.3
Allowed8.8
Pass share72%
65–78% · 134 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
BUFat the half: led 5 · within 3 in 5 · trailed 7 (of 17)
3.9
5.1Q1
10.0
8.4Q2
13.9scored13.5allowedleague 11.4
1st half
6.1
2.3Q3
9.3
7.1Q4
HOUat the half: led 10 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 4 (of 17)
4.8
2.8Q1
7.8
7.2Q2
12.6scored10.0allowedleague 11.4
1st half
3.4
5.6Q3
7.9
5.0Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
BUFHOU
13-6
Record
13-6
28.3
Points for / game
23.7
22.2
Points against / game
17.3
7-2 / 6-4
Home / road
7-2 / 6-4
L W W L W
Last 5
L W W W W
2025 season only (not a rolling window) · 19 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
BUFHOU
0.129
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.031
-0.008
EPA / play allowed
-0.144
239
Pass yards / game
233
157
Rush yards / game
109
178
Pass yards allowed
201
134
Rush yards allowed
93
1.1 / 1.5
Turnovers / takeaways
0.9 / 2.2
2.3 / 1.9
Sacks allowed / made
1.9 / 2.9
20.5
First downs / game
16.6
50
Penalty yards / game
56
+7.6 · #2 of 52
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
−2.5 · #39 of 52
2025 season to date · 19 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
BUFHOU
6-4 · 60%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
7-10 · 41%
Last two seasons (2024–2025), BUF 39 games, HOU 38. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
3BUFseriesHOU6
Avg total points
43.0
Meetings
9
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (9 of the 15 seasons in our history).
2026BUF 36 at HOU 31BUF
2025BUF 19 at HOU 23HOU
2024BUF 20 at HOU 23HOU
2021HOU 0 at BUF 40BUF
2019BUF 19 at HOU 22PlayoffsHOU
2018BUF 13 at HOU 20HOU
2015HOU 21 at BUF 30BUF
2014BUF 17 at HOU 23HOU
All 9 meetings
2012BUF 9 at HOU 21HOU
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Khalil ShakirWR11621.0%
Keon ColemanWR6311.4%
Dalton KincaidTE6010.8%
Dawson KnoxTE5710.3%
James CookRB468.3%
Josh PalmerWR376.7%
Ty JohnsonRB336.0%
Tyrell ShaversWR254.5%
Brandin CooksWR224.0%
Gabe DavisWR213.8%
Jackson HawesTE193.4%
Elijah MooreWR173.1%
Ray DavisRB152.7%
Curtis SamuelWR122.2%
Keleki LatuTE40.7%
Mecole HardmanWR30.5%
Reggie GilliamRB20.4%
Frank Gore Jr.RB10.2%
Nico CollinsWR12720.2%
Dalton SchultzTE11217.8%
Jayden HigginsWR8213.0%
Xavier HutchinsonWR7411.7%
Christian KirkWR6710.6%
Woody MarksRB406.3%
Jaylin NoelWR375.9%
Cade StoverTE213.3%
Nick ChubbRB213.3%
Dare OgunbowaleRB132.1%
Harrison BryantTE121.9%
Braxton BerriosWR81.3%
Jawhar JordanRB71.1%
Justin WatsonWR40.6%
Brenden BatesTE20.3%
Jared WayneWR20.3%
Dameon PierceRB10.2%
Buffalo Bills2024–25 seasons
Houston Texans2024–25 seasons
