The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
55%Buffalo BillsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
BUF by 1.7market BUF by 5.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
48.3 pointsmarket 43.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Buffalo Bills at 55% to win, with the market at BUF by 5.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Davis Mills starting for Houston Texans, and the model prices that in.
BUF has the advantage in big plays: BUF explosive pass rate ranks #4, HOU defends it at #17; the other way HOU #20 into BUF's #9.
BUF has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: BUF red-zone touchdown rate ranks #2, HOU defends it at #13; the other way HOU #29 into BUF's #19.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours HOU. HOU sack rate ranks #9, BUF defends it at #19; the other way BUF #19 into HOU's #5. The pick still lands on BUF because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with HOU, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it BUF by 1.7 against a market BUF by 5.5: 3.8 points of daylight in HOU's favour. The model's total is 48.3 against a line of 43.5: 4.8 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model BUF by 1.7 · market BUF by 5.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
BUF passing ranks #4, HOU defends it at #1; the other way HOU #18 into BUF's #10.
Rushing game
=
Even
BUF rushing ranks #1, HOU defends it at #2; the other way HOU #30 into BUF's #29.
Third down & red zone
BUF
Slight advantage
BUF red-zone touchdown rate ranks #2, HOU defends it at #13; the other way HOU #29 into BUF's #19.
Big plays
BUF
Slight advantage
BUF explosive pass rate ranks #4, HOU defends it at #17; the other way HOU #20 into BUF's #9.
Pass protection & rush
HOU
Clear advantage
HOU sack rate ranks #9, BUF defends it at #19; the other way BUF #19 into HOU's #5.
Ball security
HOU
Clear advantage
HOU turnovers / game ranks #12, BUF defends it at #14; the other way BUF #18 into HOU's #2.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
HOU +5.2 per game over the last five, BUF +5.8.
Market
BUF
Clear advantage
Consensus has BUF by 5.5; the model says BUF by 1.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket BUF by 5.5 · model BUF by 1.7
Mkt BUF 5.5
Model BUF 1.7
← BUF by 28tieHOU by 28 →
13.6% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 43.5 · model 48.3
Mkt 43.5
Model 48.3
20 pts4672 pts
14.7% of NFL games finish between 43.5 and 48.3. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
