RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Sep 7, 2023
John Hussey
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
11.8
≈ in line with the league average (12.0)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
101.7
≈ in line with the league average (98.6)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
9.5
≈ in line with the league average (9.6)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 512 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Roof closed · wind, cold and rain are out of playLucas Oil Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 104 (7th of 32, 100 = league average) · 47.3 points a game in 84 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2024 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2024 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
TEN offensevsIND defense
TEN offense ranks better in 1 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · IND defense in 5 (3 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.09
#29
+0.09
Stronger#23
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 20 places
−0.16
#29
−0.11
Stronger#9
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
38%
#21Stronger
45%
#30
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
53%
#24
62%
slight#23
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
8.5%
#26
5.9%
slight#23
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.Widest gap · 25 places
1.88
#32
1.47
Stronger#7
IND offensevsTEN defense
IND offense ranks better in 4 of 6 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · TEN defense in 2 (1 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.05
#24
+0.07
slight#19
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.06
#15Stronger
−0.02
#22
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
38%
#19slight
41%
#22
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
54%
#23slight
63%
#24
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.Widest gap · 14 places
5.6%
#10Stronger
5.9%
#24
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.71
#29
0.94
Stronger#22
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
TEN offenseIND defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors IND
−0.09#29▲
+0.09#23▲
Pass success rate
41%#26
48%#25
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.favors IND
7.2%#23
8.0%#17▲
Yards / dropback
5.8#24
6.8#26
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
8.1
7.3
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
12%
10%
Short throws (≤5 air)
52%
54%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.
−0.2#22▼
+3.5#27▼
YAC / completionfavors IND
4.8#29
5.3#18
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.
8.5%#26▼
5.9%#23▼
Scramble rate
5.4%
5.4%
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors IND
4.0%#32
3.0%#3▲
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 40 · M 22 · R 38
L 38 · M 21 · R 41
IND offenseTEN defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.
−0.05#24▲
+0.07#19▲
Pass success ratefavors TEN
41%#27
46%#13
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.favors IND
9.7%#9
8.5%#19▲
Yards / dropback
6.3#16
6.1#11
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
10.6
7.2
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
18%
11%
Short throws (≤5 air)
43%
56%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors TEN
−4.9#32▲
+0.6#12▼
YAC / completion
5.0#23
5.4#24
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors IND
5.6%#10
5.9%#24
Scramble rate
4.2%
7.5%
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors TEN
3.7%#31
2.3%#14▼
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 39 · M 20 · R 41
L 39 · M 18 · R 43
Tennessee Titans · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:TEN scores 46% · allows 58%IND scores 53% · allows 51%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
TENINDsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
TEN1 game · small sample
Scored6.0
Allowed24.0
Pass share69%
36 plays · too few games for a range
IND8 games
Scored13.5
Allowed11.4
Pass share47%
40–53% · 201 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
TEN4 games
Scored11.8
Allowed9.5
Pass share50%
38–62% · 118 plays
IND3 games
Scored11.7
Allowed14.3
Pass share44%
26–62% · 88 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
TEN12 games
Scored8.6
Allowed10.2
Pass share68%
62–74% · 350 plays
IND6 games
Scored10.8
Allowed12.8
Pass share63%
55–71% · 174 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
TENat the half: led 1 · within 3 in 4 · trailed 12 (of 17)
4.9
5.1Q1
2.9
10.0Q2
7.8scored15.1allowedleague 11.4
1st half
2.8
6.6Q3
6.4
4.2Q4
INDat the half: led 8 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 6 (of 17)
6.0
5.3Q1
7.9
7.8Q2
13.9scored13.1allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.9
4.4Q3
5.8
7.5Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
TENIND
3-14
Record
8-9
18.3
Points for / game
22.2
27.1
Points against / game
25.1
1-7 / 2-7
Home / road
5-3 / 3-6
L L L L L
Last 5
W L W L W
2024 season only (not a rolling window) · 17 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
TENIND
-0.113
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.054
0.023
EPA / play allowed
0.003
213
Pass yards / game
212
109
Rush yards / game
137
189
Pass yards allowed
244
134
Rush yards allowed
132
1.7 / 1.2
Turnovers / takeaways
1.4 / 2.0
3.1 / 1.9
Sacks allowed / made
1.9 / 2.1
16.2
First downs / game
17.1
61
Penalty yards / game
40
+0.5 · #25 of 49
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
−0.7 · #32 of 49
2024 season to date · 17 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
TENIND
7-18 · 28%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
5-15 · 25%
Last two seasons (2023–2024), TEN 34 games, IND 34. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
8TENseriesIND20
Avg total points
49.4
Meetings
28
Division rivals — they meet twice every season. IND have won the last 6.
2025TEN 14 at IND 38IND
2025IND 41 at TEN 20IND
2024TEN 30 at IND 38IND
2024IND 20 at TEN 17IND
2023IND 31 at TEN 28IND
2023TEN 16 at IND 23IND
2022IND 10 at TEN 19TEN
2022TEN 24 at IND 17TEN
All 28 meetings
2021TEN 34 at IND 31TEN
2021IND 16 at TEN 25TEN
2020TEN 45 at IND 26TEN
2020IND 34 at TEN 17IND
2019TEN 31 at IND 17TEN
2019IND 19 at TEN 17IND
2018IND 33 at TEN 17IND
2018TEN 10 at IND 38IND
2017TEN 20 at IND 16TEN
2017IND 22 at TEN 36TEN
2016TEN 17 at IND 24IND
2016IND 34 at TEN 26IND
2015TEN 24 at IND 30IND
2015IND 35 at TEN 33IND
2014IND 27 at TEN 10IND
2014TEN 17 at IND 41IND
2013TEN 14 at IND 22IND
2013IND 30 at TEN 27IND
2012TEN 23 at IND 27IND
2012IND 19 at TEN 13IND
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Calvin RidleyWR12023.7%
Chig OkonkwoTE7013.8%
Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR6011.9%
Tony PollardRB5711.3%
Tyler BoydWR5711.3%
Josh WhyleTE377.3%
Tyjae SpearsRB356.9%
DeAndre HopkinsWR214.2%
Nick VannettTE204.0%
Bryce OliverWR91.8%
Treylon BurksWR81.6%
Julius ChestnutRB30.6%
Jha'Quan JacksonWR30.6%
David Martin-RobinsonTE20.4%
Tay MartinWR20.4%
Mason KinseyWR20.4%
Michael PittmanWR11122.6%
Josh DownsWR10721.7%
Alec PierceWR6914.0%
Adonai MitchellWR5511.2%
Kylen GransonTE316.3%
Jonathan TaylorRB316.3%
Mo Alie-CoxTE224.5%
Trey SermonRB193.9%
Tyler GoodsonRB153.0%
Andrew OgletreeTE142.8%
Ashton DulinWR81.6%
Will MalloryTE81.6%
Anthony GouldWR10.2%
Anthony RichardsonQB10.2%
Tennessee Titans2024–25 seasons
Indianapolis Colts2024–25 seasons
