RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Nov 20, 2022
Tra Blake
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
12.2
≈ in line with the league average (11.4)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
100.8
≈ in line with the league average (93.6)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
9.5
≈ in line with the league average (9.1)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 525 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playSoFi Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 97 (25th of 32, 100 = league average) · 44.1 points a game in 53 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2024 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2024 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
MIN offensevsLAR defense
MIN offense ranks better in 2 of 6 matchups · LAR defense in 4 (2 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.05
#17
+0.05
slight#14
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.10
#21slight
−0.02
#23
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
40%
#14slight
40%
#18
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 17 places
55%
#21
48%
Stronger#4
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.Widest gap · 24 places
8.6%
#28
7.8%
Stronger#4
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.22
#19
1.11
slight#14
LAR offensevsMIN defense
LAR offense ranks better in 1 of 6 matchups · MIN defense in 5 (4 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.07
#13
−0.04
Stronger#4
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.07
#19
−0.17
Stronger#2
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 22 places
37%
#24
35%
Stronger#2
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
52%
#25
58%
Stronger#18
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
5.7%
#11slight
6.9%
#15
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
0.84
#6
1.72
slight#1
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
MIN offenseLAR defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.
+0.05#17▼
+0.05#14▼
Pass success ratefavors MIN
49%#9
48%#22
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.favors MIN
9.9%#7▼
9.3%#27
Yards / dropback
6.6#12
6.3#16▼
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
8.6
8.2
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
13%
13%
Short throws (≤5 air)
48%
50%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.
+3.4#9▼
−0.3#9▲
YAC / completion
4.9#26
5.5#25
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors LAR
8.6%#28
7.8%#4▲
Scramble rate
4.4%
5.1%
Interception rate / Interceptions forced
2.2%#19▼
2.3%#15▼
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 38 · M 22 · R 40
L 40 · M 24 · R 36
LAR offenseMIN defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors MIN
+0.07#13▲
−0.04#4▲
Pass success rate
48%#13
44%#8
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.favors MIN
8.9%#14▲
7.5%#7
Yards / dropback
6.6#13
6.0#8
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
7.6
7.8
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
10%
13%
Short throws (≤5 air)
55%
53%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors MIN
−1.0#24▼
−0.4#8▲
YAC / completionfavors MIN
5.2#18
4.9#5
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.
5.7%#11▲
6.9%#15
Scramble rate
0.7%
3.5%
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors MIN
1.4%#8▼
3.6%#2▼
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 42 · M 21 · R 37
L 36 · M 25 · R 39
Minnesota Vikings · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:MIN scores 48% · allows 55%LAR scores 52% · allows 49%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
MINLARsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
MIN4 games
Scored8.0
Allowed4.8
Pass share51%
43–60% · 113 plays
LAR10 games
Scored14.2
Allowed12.8
Pass share50%
42–58% · 318 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
MIN7 games
Scored10.3
Allowed7.1
Pass share49%
36–62% · 191 plays
LAR3 games
Scored9.0
Allowed13.7
Pass share54%
42–67% · 111 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
MIN6 games
Scored11.0
Allowed11.3
Pass share60%
52–68% · 139 plays
LAR4 games
Scored19.0
Allowed7.5
Pass share64%
53–75% · 135 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
MINat the half: led 4 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 6 (of 17)
4.9
3.8Q1
4.4
6.1Q2
9.3scored9.8allowedleague 11.4
1st half
3.9
4.2Q3
6.1
3.9Q4
LARat the half: led 10 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 4 (of 17)
7.0
4.1Q1
8.5
7.2Q2
15.5scored11.3allowedleague 11.4
1st half
6.1
4.9Q3
7.8
6.3Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.4
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
MINLAR
14-4
Record
11-8
24.5
Points for / game
21.9
19.9
Points against / game
22.3
8-1 / 6-3
Home / road
6-4 / 5-4
L L W W W
Last 5
L W L W W
2024 season only (not a rolling window) · 18–19 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
MINLAR
-0.005
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.001
-0.082
EPA / play allowed
0.015
257
Pass yards / game
244
109
Rush yards / game
103
259
Pass yards allowed
235
93
Rush yards allowed
137
1.1 / 2.0
Turnovers / takeaways
0.7 / 1.4
3.2 / 2.8
Sacks allowed / made
2.0 / 2.8
18.1
First downs / game
18.1
48
Penalty yards / game
49
+1.2 · #22 of 49
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+1.9 · #18 of 49
2024 season to date · 18–19 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
MINLAR
7-7 · 50%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
7-13 · 35%
Last two seasons (2023–2024), MIN 35 games, LAR 37. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
4MINseriesLAR4
Avg total points
47.0
Meetings
8
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (7 of the 15 seasons in our history). LAR have won the last 4.
2024MIN 9 vs LAR 27Super BowlLAR
2024MIN 20 at LAR 30LAR
2021LAR 30 at MIN 23LAR
2018MIN 31 at LAR 38LAR
2017LAR 7 at MIN 24MIN
2015LAR 18 at MIN 21MIN
2014MIN 34 at LAR 6MIN
2012MIN 36 at LAR 22MIN
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Justin JeffersonWR16229.1%
Jordan AddisonWR10719.2%
Aaron JonesRB6812.2%
T.J. HockensonTE6712.0%
Jalen NailorWR478.4%
Johnny MundtTE305.4%
Josh OliverTE295.2%
Trent SherfieldWR122.2%
Cam AkersRB112.0%
Brandon PowellWR101.8%
C.J. HamFB71.3%
Ty ChandlerRB61.1%
Myles GaskinRB10.2%
Puka NacuaWR12921.1%
Cooper KuppWR10817.7%
Demarcus RobinsonWR7311.9%
Tutu AtwellWR6310.3%
Colby ParkinsonTE538.7%
Kyren WilliamsRB457.4%
Tyler JohnsonWR416.7%
Jordan WhittingtonWR294.7%
Tyler HigbeeTE274.4%
Davis AllenTE152.5%
Hunter LongTE111.8%
Blake CorumRB81.3%
Ronnie RiversRB61.0%
Xavier SmithWR20.3%
Cody SchraderRB10.2%
Minnesota Vikings2024–25 seasons
Los Angeles Rams2024–25 seasons
