RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Alberto Riveron
Too few earlier games on record to compare with the league.
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = — league games, 0 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playEdward Jones Dome · TurfStadium scoring factor 97 (25th of 32, 100 = league average) · 44.1 points a game in 53 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Minnesota Vikings · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:MIN scores 48% · allows 55%LAR scores 52% · allows 49%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
MINLARsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
MIN4 games
Scored8.0
Allowed4.8
Pass share51%
43–60% · 113 plays
LAR10 games
Scored14.2
Allowed12.8
Pass share50%
42–58% · 318 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
MIN7 games
Scored10.3
Allowed7.1
Pass share49%
36–62% · 191 plays
LAR3 games
Scored9.0
Allowed13.7
Pass share54%
42–67% · 111 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
MIN6 games
Scored11.0
Allowed11.3
Pass share60%
52–68% · 139 plays
LAR4 games
Scored19.0
Allowed7.5
Pass share64%
53–75% · 135 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
MINat the half: led 4 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 6 (of 17)
4.9
3.8Q1
4.4
6.1Q2
9.3scored9.8allowedleague 11.4
1st half
3.9
4.2Q3
6.1
3.9Q4
LARat the half: led 10 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 4 (of 17)
7.0
4.1Q1
8.5
7.2Q2
15.5scored11.3allowedleague 11.4
1st half
6.1
4.9Q3
7.8
6.3Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
MINLAR
10-7
Record
7-8-1
22.9
Points for / game
18.7
21.9
Points against / game
21.8
7-1 / 3-6
Home / road
4-4 / 3-4
L W W W W
Last 5
L W L W W
2012 season only (not a rolling window) · 16–17 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
MINLAR
-0.008
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.027
0.005
EPA / play allowed
-0.020
183
Pass yards / game
236
165
Rush yards / game
107
263
Pass yards allowed
245
104
Rush yards allowed
118
1.2 / 1.5
Turnovers / takeaways
1.1 / 1.8
2.1 / 2.8
Sacks allowed / made
2.2 / 3.2
17.2
First downs / game
16.8
51
Penalty yards / game
61
−0.8 · #26 of 40
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
−0.0 · #21 of 40
2012 season to date · 16–17 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
MINLAR
7-4 · 64%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
7-6-1 · 54%
Last two seasons (2011–2012), MIN 17 games, LAR 16. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
4MINseriesLAR4
Avg total points
47.0
Meetings
8
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (7 of the 15 seasons in our history). LAR have won the last 4.
2024MIN 9 vs LAR 27Super BowlLAR
2024MIN 20 at LAR 30LAR
2021LAR 30 at MIN 23LAR
2018MIN 31 at LAR 38LAR
2017LAR 7 at MIN 24MIN
2015LAR 18 at MIN 21MIN
2014MIN 34 at LAR 6MIN
2012MIN 36 at LAR 22MIN
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Kyle RudolphTE9719.2%
Percy HarvinWR8516.8%
Michael JenkinsWR7715.2%
Jerome SimpsonWR5711.3%
Adrian PetersonRB5410.7%
Jarius WrightWR407.9%
Toby GerhartRB275.3%
Devin AromashoduWR254.9%
John CarlsonTE163.2%
Stephen BurtonWR112.2%
Rhett EllisonTE102.0%
Jerome FeltonFB40.8%
Christian PonderQB10.2%
Allen ReisnerTE10.2%
Matt AsiataRB10.2%
Danny AmendolaWR10118.6%
Brandon GibsonWR8215.1%
Chris GivensWR8014.7%
Lance KendricksTE6411.8%
Steven JacksonRB539.7%
Austin PettisWR488.8%
Daryl RichardsonRB366.6%
Brian QuickWR275.0%
Steve SmithWR254.6%
Matthew MulliganTE122.2%
Mike McNeillTE71.3%
Isaiah PeadRB40.7%
Brit MillerFB30.6%
Cory HarkeyTE20.4%
Minnesota Vikings2024–25 seasons
Los Angeles Rams2024–25 seasons
