The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
61%Minnesota VikingsSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
MIN by 3.9market MIN by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
44.2 pointsmarket 47.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Minnesota Vikings at 61% to win, with the market at MIN by 3.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Matthew Stafford starting for Los Angeles Rams, and the model prices that in.
MIN has the advantage in rushing: MIN rushing ranks #21, LAR defends it at #23; the other way LAR #19 into MIN's #2.
MIN has the advantage in big plays: MIN explosive pass rate ranks #7, LAR defends it at #27; the other way LAR #14 into MIN's #7.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours LAR. LAR sack rate ranks #11, MIN defends it at #15; the other way MIN #28 into LAR's #4. The pick still lands on MIN because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: LAR has the better last five games by 7.6 points a game (LAR +4.2, MIN -3.4).
Home field is with LAR, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it MIN by 3.9 against a market MIN by 3: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 44.2 against a line of 47.5: 3.3 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model MIN by 3.9 · market MIN by 3
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
MIN
Slight advantage
MIN passing ranks #17, LAR defends it at #14; the other way LAR #13 into MIN's #4.
Rushing game
MIN
Clear advantage
MIN rushing ranks #21, LAR defends it at #23; the other way LAR #19 into MIN's #2.
Third down & red zone
MIN
Slight advantage
MIN third-down conversion ranks #14, LAR defends it at #18; the other way LAR #24 into MIN's #2.
Big plays
MIN
Clear advantage
MIN explosive pass rate ranks #7, LAR defends it at #27; the other way LAR #14 into MIN's #7.
Pass protection & rush
LAR
Clear advantage
LAR sack rate ranks #11, MIN defends it at #15; the other way MIN #28 into LAR's #4.
Ball security
=
Even
LAR turnovers / game ranks #6, MIN defends it at #1; the other way MIN #19 into LAR's #14.
Form (last 5)
LAR
Clear advantage
LAR +4.2 per game over the last five, MIN −3.4.
Market
MIN
Slight advantage
Consensus has MIN by 3; the model says MIN by 3.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket MIN by 3 · model MIN by 3.9
Mkt MIN 3
Model MIN 3.9
← MIN by 28tieLAR by 28 →
No whole-number margin falls between 3 and 3.9, so the two numbers differ only on a push at 3. The market is on 3, a number 14.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 47.5 · model 44.2
Mkt 47.5
Model 44.2
20 pts4672 pts
8.1% of NFL games finish between 47.5 and 44.2. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
