RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Oct 9, 2022
John Hussey
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
11.1
≈ in line with the league average (11.1)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
92.1
≈ in line with the league average (91.7)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
8.9
≈ in line with the league average (8.8)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 506 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Roof closed · wind, cold and rain are out of playLucas Oil Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 104 (7th of 32, 100 = league average) · 47.3 points a game in 84 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2024 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2024 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
HOU offensevsIND defense
HOU offense ranks better in 2 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · IND defense in 4 (3 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.01
#22slight
+0.09
#23
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 16 places
−0.11
#25
−0.11
Stronger#9
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
39%
#18Stronger
45%
#30
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
48%
#28
62%
slight#23
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
8.8%
#30
5.9%
Stronger#23
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.11
#13
1.47
Stronger#7
IND offensevsHOU defense
IND offense ranks better in 0 of 6 matchups · HOU defense in 6 (5 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 21 places
−0.05
#24
−0.04
Stronger#3
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.06
#15
−0.14
Stronger#3
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
38%
#19
36%
Stronger#3
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
54%
#23
60%
slight#21
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
5.6%
#10
8.0%
Stronger#3
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.Widest gap · 25 places
1.71
#29
1.63
Stronger#4
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
HOU offenseIND defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.
−0.01#22
+0.09#23▲
Pass success rate
42%#24
48%#25
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.
7.4%#21
8.0%#17▲
Yards / dropback
5.8#23
6.8#26
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
8.3
7.3
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
12%
10%
Short throws (≤5 air)
47%
54%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.
−1.9#27▲
+3.5#27▼
YAC / completionfavors IND
4.9#27
5.3#18
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors IND
8.8%#30
5.9%#23▼
Scramble rate
6.3%
5.4%
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors IND
2.1%#15▼
3.0%#3▲
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 33 · M 23 · R 43
L 38 · M 21 · R 41
IND offenseHOU defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors HOU
−0.05#24▲
−0.04#3▼
Pass success ratefavors HOU
41%#27
40%#1
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.favors IND
9.7%#9
8.0%#16
Yards / dropbackfavors HOU
6.3#16
5.9#2
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
10.6
9.1
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
18%
15%
Short throws (≤5 air)
43%
48%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors HOU
−4.9#32▲
−5.9#1▼
YAC / completionfavors IND
5.0#23
6.2#32
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors HOU
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:HOU scores 53% · allows 49%IND scores 53% · allows 51%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
HOUINDsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
HOU10 games
Scored9.8
Allowed12.3
Pass share45%
39–51% · 278 plays
IND8 games
Scored13.5
Allowed11.4
Pass share47%
40–53% · 201 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
HOU3 games
Scored16.3
Allowed7.3
Pass share56%
48–65% · 94 plays
IND3 games
Scored11.7
Allowed14.3
Pass share44%
26–62% · 88 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
HOU4 games
Scored11.3
Allowed8.8
Pass share72%
65–78% · 134 plays
IND6 games
Scored10.8
Allowed12.8
Pass share63%
55–71% · 174 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
HOUat the half: led 10 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 4 (of 17)
4.8
2.8Q1
7.8
7.2Q2
12.6scored10.0allowedleague 11.4
1st half
3.4
5.6Q3
7.9
5.0Q4
INDat the half: led 8 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 6 (of 17)
6.0
5.3Q1
7.9
7.8Q2
13.9scored13.1allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.9
4.4Q3
5.8
7.5Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
HOUIND
11-8
Record
8-9
22.0
Points for / game
22.2
21.4
Points against / game
25.1
6-3 / 5-5
Home / road
5-3 / 3-6
L W W L L
Last 5
W L W L W
2024 season only (not a rolling window) · 17–19 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
HOUIND
-0.047
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.054
-0.084
EPA / play allowed
0.003
236
Pass yards / game
212
117
Rush yards / game
137
220
Pass yards allowed
244
107
Rush yards allowed
132
1.0 / 1.9
Turnovers / takeaways
1.4 / 2.0
3.4 / 2.9
Sacks allowed / made
1.9 / 2.1
17.1
First downs / game
17.1
60
Penalty yards / game
40
−0.9 · #33 of 49
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
−2.2 · #36 of 49
2024 season to date · 17–19 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
HOUIND
8-12 · 40%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
5-15 · 25%
Last two seasons (2023–2024), HOU 38 games, IND 34. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
12HOUseriesIND17
Avg total points
43.8
Meetings
30
Division rivals — they meet twice every season.
2026HOU 17 at IND 19IND
2025IND 30 at HOU 38HOU
2025HOU 20 at IND 16HOU
2024IND 20 at HOU 23HOU
2024HOU 29 at IND 27HOU
2023HOU 23 at IND 19HOU
2023IND 31 at HOU 20IND
2022HOU 32 at IND 31HOU
All 30 meetings
2022IND 20 at HOU 20Tie
2021IND 31 at HOU 0IND
2021HOU 3 at IND 31IND
2020HOU 20 at IND 27IND
2020IND 26 at HOU 20IND
2019IND 17 at HOU 20HOU
2019HOU 23 at IND 30IND
2018IND 21 at HOU 7PlayoffsIND
2018IND 24 at HOU 21IND
2018HOU 37 at IND 34HOU
2017HOU 13 at IND 22IND
2017IND 20 at HOU 14IND
2016HOU 22 at IND 17HOU
2016IND 23 at HOU 26HOU
2015HOU 16 at IND 10HOU
2015IND 27 at HOU 20IND
2014HOU 10 at IND 17IND
2014IND 33 at HOU 28IND
2013HOU 3 at IND 25IND
2013IND 27 at HOU 24IND
2012HOU 16 at IND 28IND
2012IND 17 at HOU 29HOU
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Nico CollinsWR11518.9%
Dalton SchultzTE9315.3%
Tank DellWR8113.3%
Stefon DiggsWR6410.5%
Joe MixonRB579.4%
John Metchie IIIWR477.7%
Robert WoodsWR345.6%
Xavier HutchinsonWR335.4%
Dare OgunbowaleRB294.8%
Cade StoverTE264.3%
Cam AkersRB71.2%
Dameon PierceRB50.8%
Diontae JohnsonWR50.8%
Brevin JordanTE30.5%
J.J. TaylorRB30.5%
Jared WayneWR20.3%
C.J. StroudQB10.2%
Irv SmithTE10.2%
Andrew BeckFB10.2%
Michael PittmanWR11122.6%
Josh DownsWR10721.7%
Alec PierceWR6914.0%
Adonai MitchellWR5511.2%
Kylen GransonTE316.3%
Jonathan TaylorRB316.3%
Mo Alie-CoxTE224.5%
Trey SermonRB193.9%
Tyler GoodsonRB153.0%
Andrew OgletreeTE142.8%
Ashton DulinWR81.6%
Will MalloryTE81.6%
Anthony GouldWR10.2%
Anthony RichardsonQB10.2%
Houston Texans2024–25 seasons
Indianapolis Colts2024–25 seasons
