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Merrimack Warriors
0-1 · #228 Elo
at
Sat, Nov 7, 12:00 PM ET
Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
1-0 · #46 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline —
The read
On rating alone Wake Forest Demon Deacons are 18.0 points better (#46 vs #228 of 240), and WAKE add 0.0 for home field.
Who has the edge
Rating
Clear edge
WAKE
WAKE rated 18.0 points better on Elo (#46 vs #228).
Home & rest
Even
—
WAKE gets 0.0 points for home field.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
WAKE
WAKE +22.0 per game over the last five, MRMK −35.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Merrimack WarriorsWake Forest Demon Deacons
1273 Elo · #228
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
WAKE +18.0 pts
1598 Elo · #46
road
Home field
not priced
home
—
Rest
even
—
−15.5 pts vs WAKE D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
WAKE +25.0 pts
+9.5 pts vs MRMK D
L · −35.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
WAKE +28.5 pts
W · +22.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| MRMK | WAKE | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 1-0 |
| 7.0 | Points for / game | 38.0 |
| 42.0 | Points against / game | 16.0 |
| 0-0 / 0-1 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 0-1 |
| 0-1 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| L | Last 5 | W |
Power ratings
| MRMK | WAKE | |
|---|---|---|
| 1273 | Elo | 1598 |
| #228 of 240 | Rank | #46 of 240 |
| −9.5 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +4.4 |
| −5.1 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +6.0 |
| 1364 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1302 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- WAKE +18.0 pts
- Home field
- WAKE +— pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- — pts on the total
- Model margin
- —
- Model total
- —
Market
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- —
Per-book prices appear once the multi-book feed has this game (about a week out).
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.