← College Football slate
Lindenwood Lions
0-2 last yr · #149 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 26, 1:00 PM ET
Rynearson Stadium
Eastern Michigan Eagles
1-1 · #218 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline —
The read
On rating alone Lindenwood Lions are 5.7 points better (#149 vs #218 of 240), and EMU add 0.0 for home field.
Who has the edge
Rating
Clear edge
LIN
LIN rated 5.7 points better on Elo (#218 vs #149).
Home & rest
Even
—
EMU gets 0.0 points for home field.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
EMU
EMU +2.5 per game over the last five, LIN −22.5.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Lindenwood LionsEastern Michigan Eagles
1414 Elo · #149
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
LIN +5.7 pts
1312 Elo · #218
road
Home field
not priced
home
—
Rest
even
—
−6.4 pts vs EMU D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
EMU +4.2 pts
−2.2 pts vs LIN D
L L · −22.5
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
EMU +12.5 pts
L W · +2.5
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| LIN | EMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 1-1 |
| 6.5 | Points for / game | 24.5 |
| 29.0 | Points against / game | 22.0 |
| 0-0 / 0-2 | Home / road | 1-1 / 0-0 |
| 1-1 | Against the spread | 1-1 |
| 0-2 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 0-2 |
| L L | Last 5 | L W |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| LIN | EMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1414 | Elo | 1312 |
| #149 of 240 | Rank | #218 of 240 |
| −5.9 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | −3.3 |
| −1.1 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +0.5 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1381 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- LIN +5.7 pts
- Home field
- EMU +— pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- — pts on the total
- Model margin
- —
- Model total
- —
Market
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- —
Per-book prices appear once the multi-book feed has this game (about a week out).
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.