← College Football slate
Texas A&M-Commerce Lions
0-2 last yr · #139 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 19, 8:00 PM ET
H. A. Chapman Stadium
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
1-0 · #187 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline —
The read
On rating alone Texas A&M-Commerce Lions are 2.6 points better (#139 vs #187 of 240), and TLSA add 0.0 for home field.
Who has the edge
Rating
Slight edge
TAMC
TAMC rated 2.6 points better on Elo (#187 vs #139).
Home & rest
Even
—
TLSA gets 0.0 points for home field.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
TLSA
TLSA +14.0 per game over the last five, TAMC −51.5.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Texas A&M-Commerce LionsTulsa Golden Hurricane
1423 Elo · #139
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
TAMC +2.6 pts
1376 Elo · #187
road
Home field
not priced
home
—
Rest
even
—
−4.6 pts vs TLSA D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
TLSA +9.9 pts
+5.3 pts vs TAMC D
L L · −51.5
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
TLSA +32.8 pts
W · +14.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| TAMC | TLSA | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 1-0 |
| 8.0 | Points for / game | 24.0 |
| 59.5 | Points against / game | 10.0 |
| 0-0 / 0-2 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 1-1 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 1-1 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 0-1 |
| L L | Last 5 | W |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| TAMC | TLSA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1423 | Elo | 1376 |
| #139 of 240 | Rank | #187 of 240 |
| −4.6 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | −1.7 |
| −7.0 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | −0.0 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1283 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- TAMC +2.6 pts
- Home field
- TLSA +— pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- — pts on the total
- Model margin
- —
- Model total
- —
Market
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- —
Per-book prices appear once the multi-book feed has this game (about a week out).
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.