← College Football slate
Maine Black Bears
0-1 · #211 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 19, 2:00 PM ET
Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
Boston College Eagles
0-1 · #191 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline —
The read
On rating alone Boston College Eagles are 1.9 points better (#191 vs #211 of 240), and BC add 0.0 for home field.
Who has the edge
Rating
Slight edge
BC
BC rated 1.9 points better on Elo (#191 vs #211).
Home & rest
Even
—
BC gets 0.0 points for home field.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
BC
BC −19.0 per game over the last five, ME −52.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Maine Black BearsBoston College Eagles
1332 Elo · #211
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
BC +1.9 pts
1365 Elo · #191
road
Home field
not priced
home
—
Rest
even
—
−9.3 pts vs BC D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
BC +16.3 pts
+7.0 pts vs ME D
L · −52.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
BC +16.5 pts
L · −19.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| ME | BC | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 0-1 |
| 3.0 | Points for / game | 15.0 |
| 55.0 | Points against / game | 34.0 |
| 0-0 / 0-1 | Home / road | 0-0 / 0-1 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 0-1 |
| 1-0 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 0-1 |
| L | Last 5 | L |
Power ratings
| ME | BC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1332 | Elo | 1365 |
| #211 of 240 | Rank | #191 of 240 |
| −8.4 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | −0.4 |
| −7.4 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +0.9 |
| 1337 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1558 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- BC +1.9 pts
- Home field
- BC +— pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- — pts on the total
- Model margin
- —
- Model total
- —
Market
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- —
Per-book prices appear once the multi-book feed has this game (about a week out).
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.