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Texas Southern Tigers
0-1 last yr · #178 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 9:00 PM ET
Sun Bowl · 95° · 11 mph wind · Intermittent clouds
UTEP Miners
0-1 · #234 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline TXSO +267 · UTEP -8792 books · best TXSO +335 polymarketus · UTEP -609 kalshi
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
TXSO +267
62%
model margin TXSO by 5.2
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 61.7
The read
On rating alone Texas Southern Tigers are 8.5 points better (#178 vs #234 of 240), and UTEP add 3.1 for home field; UTEP carry a rest edge worth 0.2.
Who has the edge
Model: TXSO by 5.2
Rating
Clear edge
TXSO
TXSO rated 8.5 points better on Elo (#234 vs #178).
Home & rest
Clear edge
UTEP
UTEP gets 3.1 points for home field and UTEP 0.2 for rest.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
TXSO
UTEP −51.0 per game over the last five, TXSO −32.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: TXSO by 5.2
Texas Southern TigersUTEP Miners
1386 Elo · #178
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
TXSO +8.5 pts
1234 Elo · #234
road
Home field
UTEP +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
UTEP +0.2 pts
8d
+2.4 pts vs UTEP D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
TXSO +0.1 pts
+2.3 pts vs TXSO D
L · −32.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
TXSO +9.5 pts
L · −51.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| TXSO | UTEP | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 0-1 |
| 3.0 | Points for / game | 0.0 |
| 35.0 | Points against / game | 51.0 |
| 0-0 / 0-1 | Home / road | 0-0 / 0-1 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 0-1 |
| 0-1 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 0-1 |
| L | Last 5 | L |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| TXSO | UTEP | |
|---|---|---|
| 1386 | Elo | 1234 |
| #178 of 240 | Rank | #234 of 240 |
| −6.2 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | −4.9 |
| −7.2 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | −8.6 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1768 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- TXSO +8.5 pts
- Home field
- UTEP +3.1 pts
- Rest
- UTEP +0.2 pts
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- TXSO by 5.2
- Model total
- 61.7 vs —
Market · 2 books
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- TXSO +267 · UTEP -879
- Best price
- TXSO +335 polymarketus · UTEP -609 kalshi
| Book | UTEP spread | Total | TXSO ML | UTEP ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | — | — | +198 | -609 |
| polymarketus | — | — | +335 | -1150 |
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.