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Fordham Rams
0-1 · #163 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 7:30 PM ET
Brooks Stadium (SC) · 83° · Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
0-1 · #222 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline FOR +441 · CCU -14982 books · best FOR +456 polymarketus · CCU -1429 kalshi
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
FOR +441
57%
model margin FOR by 2.9
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 58.4
The read
On rating alone Fordham Rams are 6.0 points better (#163 vs #222 of 240), and CCU add 3.1 for home field.
Who has the edge
Model: FOR by 2.9
Rating
Clear edge
FOR
FOR rated 6.0 points better on Elo (#222 vs #163).
Home & rest
Clear edge
CCU
CCU gets 3.1 points for home field.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
CCU
CCU −7.0 per game over the last five, FOR −38.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: FOR by 2.9
Fordham RamsCoastal Carolina Chanticleers
1400 Elo · #163
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
FOR +6.0 pts
1292 Elo · #222
road
Home field
CCU +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
even
7d
−2.1 pts vs CCU D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
CCU +5.5 pts
+3.4 pts vs FOR D
L · −38.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
CCU +15.5 pts
L · −7.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| FOR | CCU | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 0-1 |
| 0.0 | Points for / game | 24.0 |
| 38.0 | Points against / game | 31.0 |
| 0-0 / 0-1 | Home / road | 0-0 / 0-1 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 0-1 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| L | Last 5 | L |
Power ratings
| FOR | CCU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1400 | Elo | 1292 |
| #163 of 240 | Rank | #222 of 240 |
| −5.6 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | −2.5 |
| −6.0 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | −3.5 |
| 1520 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1422 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- FOR +6.0 pts
- Home field
- CCU +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- FOR by 2.9
- Model total
- 58.4 vs —
Market · 2 books
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- FOR +441 · CCU -1498
- Best price
- FOR +456 polymarketus · CCU -1429 kalshi
| Book | CCU spread | Total | FOR ML | CCU ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | — | — | +425 | -1429 |
| polymarketus | — | — | +456 | -1567 |
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.