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Illinois State Redbirds
0-1 last yr · #102 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 7:00 PM ET
Huskie Stadium · 79° · Mostly cloudy
Northern Illinois Huskies
0-1 · #232 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline ILST -158 · NIU -1862 books · best ILST -156 polymarketus · NIU -161 kalshi
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
ILST -158
68%
model margin ILST by 8.1
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 49.6
The read
On rating alone Illinois State Redbirds are 11.2 points better (#102 vs #232 of 240), and NIU add 3.1 for home field.
Who has the edge
Model: ILST by 8.1
Rating
Clear edge
ILST
ILST rated 11.2 points better on Elo (#232 vs #102).
Home & rest
Clear edge
NIU
NIU gets 3.1 points for home field.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
ILST
NIU −40.0 per game over the last five, ILST −32.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: ILST by 8.1
Illinois State RedbirdsNorthern Illinois Huskies
1459 Elo · #102
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
ILST +11.2 pts
1259 Elo · #232
road
Home field
NIU +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
even
7d
−2.7 pts vs NIU D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
ILST +2.1 pts
−4.7 pts vs ILST D
L · −32.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
ILST +4.0 pts
L · −40.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| ILST | NIU | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 0-1 |
| 3.0 | Points for / game | 0.0 |
| 35.0 | Points against / game | 40.0 |
| 0-0 / 0-1 | Home / road | 0-0 / 0-1 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 0-1 |
| 0-1 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 0-1 |
| L | Last 5 | L |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| ILST | NIU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1459 | Elo | 1259 |
| #102 of 240 | Rank | #232 of 240 |
| −3.6 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | −6.6 |
| −1.8 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | −0.9 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1792 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- ILST +11.2 pts
- Home field
- NIU +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- ILST by 8.1
- Model total
- 49.6 vs —
Market · 2 books
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- ILST -158 · NIU -186
- Best price
- ILST -156 polymarketus · NIU -161 kalshi
| Book | NIU spread | Total | ILST ML | NIU ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | — | — | -161 | -161 |
| polymarketus | — | — | -156 | -212 |
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.