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Towson Tigers
0-1 · #162 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 7:00 PM ET
Williams-Brice Stadium · 83° · Mostly sunny
South Carolina Gamecocks
1-0 · #47 Elo
Spread SC -34.5Total 45.5Moneyline TOW +2738 · SC -50882 books · best TOW +3233 polymarketus · SC -4900 polymarketus
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
SC -5088
79%
model margin SC by 13.9
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
TOW +34.5
57%
20.6 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 45.5
52%
model total 52.4
The read
On rating alone South Carolina Gamecocks are 10.8 points better (#47 vs #162 of 240), and SC add 3.1 for home field. The model lands on SC by 13.9 against a market SC by 34.5, so the spread lean is TOW by 20.6 points — a lean, not an edge: against closing lines this model covers about 49%. On the total the model sees 52.4 against 45.5.
Who has the edge
Model: SC by 13.9 · market SC by 34.5
Rating
Clear edge
SC
SC rated 10.8 points better on Elo (#47 vs #162).
Home & rest
Clear edge
SC
SC gets 3.1 points for home field.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
SC
SC +57.0 per game over the last five, TOW −27.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
SC
Consensus has SC by 34.5; the model says SC by 13.9.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: SC by 13.9 · market SC by 34.5
Towson TigersSouth Carolina Gamecocks
1400 Elo · #162
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
SC +10.8 pts
1595 Elo · #47
road
Home field
SC +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
even
7d
−15.8 pts vs SC D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
SC +27.0 pts
+11.2 pts vs TOW D
L · −27.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
SC +42.0 pts
W · +57.0
TOW +34.5
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
SC +34.5 pts
SC -34.5
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| TOW | SC | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 1-0 |
| 15.0 | Points for / game | 57.0 |
| 42.0 | Points against / game | 0.0 |
| 0-0 / 0-1 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 1-0 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| L | Last 5 | W |
Power ratings
| TOW | SC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1400 | Elo | 1595 |
| #162 of 240 | Rank | #47 of 240 |
| −3.3 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +6.9 |
| −4.3 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +12.5 |
| 1615 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1230 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- SC +10.8 pts
- Home field
- SC +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- SC by 13.9
- Model total
- 52.4 vs 45.5
Market · 2 books
- Spread
- SC -34.5
- Total
- 45.5
- Moneyline
- TOW +2738 · SC -5088
- Best price
- TOW +3233 polymarketus · SC -4900 polymarketus
| Book | SC spread | Total | TOW ML | SC ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | — | — | +2242 | -5276 |
| polymarketus | -34.5 (+138) | 45.5 (-156/+150) | +3233 | -4900 |
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.