← College Football slate
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
1-1 · #121 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 6:00 PM ET
Peden Stadium · 78° · Sunny
Ohio Bobcats
0-1 · #114 Elo
Spread OHIO -2.5Total 48.5Moneyline JVST +1 · OHIO -1202 books · best JVST +105 draftkings · OHIO -115 fanduel
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
OHIO -120
57%
model margin OHIO by 3.2
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Coin flip
OHIO -2.5
50%
0.7 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Coin flip
Over 48.5
50%
model total 49.4
The read
On rating alone Ohio Bobcats are 0.2 points better (#114 vs #121 of 240), and OHIO add 3.1 for home field. The clearest mismatch is the third down & red zone: OHIO third-down conversion ranks #42, JVST defends it at #46; the other way JVST #82 into OHIO's #21. The model lands on OHIO by 3.2, essentially the market's number — no spread lean.
Who has the edge
Model: OHIO by 3.2 · market OHIO by 2.5
Rating
Even
—
OHIO rated 0.2 points better on Elo (#114 vs #121).
Home & rest
Clear edge
OHIO
OHIO gets 3.1 points for home field.
Passing game
Slight edge
OHIO
OHIO passing ranks #60, JVST defends it at #67; the other way JVST #101 into OHIO's #55.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Slight edge
OHIO
OHIO rushing ranks #23, JVST defends it at #76; the other way JVST #28 into OHIO's #56.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Slight edge
OHIO
OHIO third-down conversion ranks #42, JVST defends it at #46; the other way JVST #82 into OHIO's #21.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
JVST
OHIO −28.0 per game over the last five, JVST +8.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Slight edge
OHIO
Consensus has OHIO by 2.5; the model says OHIO by 3.2.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: OHIO by 3.2 · market OHIO by 2.5
Jacksonville State GamecocksOhio Bobcats
1443 Elo · #121
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
OHIO +0.2 pts
1445 Elo · #114
road
Home field
OHIO +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
even
7d
−3.3 pts vs OHIO D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
JVST +1.0 pts
−4.3 pts vs JVST D
W L · +8.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
JVST +18.0 pts
L · −28.0
−6.7
SP+ (last season)Bill Connelly's SP+ from last season, the prior the college model starts each season from.
OHIO +2.7 pts
−4.0
JVST +2.5
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
OHIO +2.5 pts
OHIO -2.5
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸OHIO rush explosiveness (#16) against a JVST defense ranked #114 at stopping it
- ▸OHIO power success (#23) against a JVST defense ranked #117 at stopping it
- ▸OHIO defense (#38 interceptions forced) against a JVST offense ranked #125
- ▸JVST rush explosiveness (#13) against a OHIO defense ranked #88 at stopping it
- ▸JVST defense (#23 takeaways / game) against a OHIO offense ranked #92
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
Jacksonville State Gamecocks offense vs Ohio Bobcats defense
ranks of 135| JVST off | OHIO def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 35% | 48% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 71% | 69% | · |
| Plays / game | 67 | 61 | · |
| Possession / game | 30:27 | 27:38 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.19#101 | +0.21#55 | OHIO |
| Pass success rate | 39%#98 | 40%#57 | OHIO |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.53#79 | 1.58#87 | · |
| Yards / pass attempt | 6.9#84 | 7.5#93 | · |
| Completion % | 59%#93 | 64%#99 | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 4.3%#125 | 3.1%#38 | OHIO |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.20#28 | +0.08#56 | JVST |
| Rush success rate | 47%#37 | 42%#69 | JVST |
| Rush explosiveness | 1.11#13 | 0.99#88 | JVST |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 3.15#32 | 2.98#86 | JVST |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 18%#60 | 19%#72 | · |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 68%#95 | 67%#32 | OHIO |
| Yards / rush | 5.4#15 | 4.4#82 | JVST |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.13#55 | +0.09#68 | · |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.31#64 | +0.20#26 | OHIO |
| Third-down conversion | 39%#82 | 33%#21 | OHIO |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.73#64 | 2.83#13 | OHIO |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 14.0%#48 | 14.9%#86 | JVST |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 0.93#23 | 1.31#63 | JVST |
Ohio Bobcats offense vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks defense
ranks of 135| OHIO off | JVST def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 38% | 47% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 71% | 67% | · |
| Plays / game | 67 | 65 | · |
| Possession / game | 32:07 | 29:33 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.27#60 | +0.24#67 | · |
| Pass success rate | 46%#29 | 42%#69 | OHIO |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.42#118 | 1.56#72 | JVST |
| Yards / pass attempt | 7.7#47 | 7.4#83 | OHIO |
| Completion % | 62%#74 | 61%#61 | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 3.8%#116 | 1.3%#126 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.21#23 | +0.11#76 | OHIO |
| Rush success rate | 45%#57 | 42%#68 | · |
| Rush explosiveness | 1.10#16 | 1.06#114 | OHIO |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 3.32#14 | 2.71#33 | · |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 13%#4 | 20%#44 | OHIO |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 79%#23 | 79%#117 | OHIO |
| Yards / rush | 5.4#14 | 4.0#53 | OHIO |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.19#27 | +0.08#61 | OHIO |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.24#93 | +0.32#80 | · |
| Third-down conversion | 42%#42 | 36%#46 | · |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.55#84 | 3.78#80 | · |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 12.3%#17 | 17.0%#40 | · |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.46#92 | 1.71#23 | JVST |
Season
| JVST | OHIO | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | Record | 0-1 |
| 28.0 | Points for / game | 21.0 |
| 20.0 | Points against / game | 49.0 |
| 1-0 / 0-1 | Home / road | 0-0 / 0-1 |
| 1-1 | Against the spread | 0-1 |
| 1-1 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| W L | Last 5 | L |
Power ratings
| JVST | OHIO | |
|---|---|---|
| 1443 | Elo | 1445 |
| #121 of 240 | Rank | #114 of 240 |
| −1.3 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | −0.8 |
| +3.4 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +2.0 |
| 1435 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1581 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| JVST | OHIO | |
|---|---|---|
| −7.8 | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | −11.8 |
| 0.185 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.207 |
| 0.158 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.124 |
| 44% / 42% | Success rate (off / def) | 45% / 41% |
| 1.25 / 1.31 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.23 / 1.27 |
| 603 | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | 523 |
| 50% | Returning production | 63% |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
| 2024 | OHIO 30 vs JVST 27 | OHIO · JVST covered |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- OHIO +0.2 pts
- Home field
- OHIO +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- OHIO by 3.2
- Model total
- 49.4 vs 48.5
Market · 2 books
- Spread
- OHIO -2.5
- Total
- 48.5
- Moneyline
- JVST +1 · OHIO -120
- Best price
- JVST +105 draftkings · OHIO -115 fanduel
| Book | OHIO spread | Total | JVST ML | OHIO ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| draftkings | — | — | +105 | -125 |
| fanduel | — | — | -104 | -115 |
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.