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Northern Colorado Bears
0-1 last yr · #134 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 4:00 PM ET
War Memorial Stadium · 73° · 13 mph wind · Mostly sunny
Wyoming Cowboys
0-1 · #226 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline UNCO +329 · WYO -12672 books · best UNCO +331 kalshi · WYO -967 kalshi
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
UNCO +329
62%
model margin UNCO by 5.4
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 43.0
The read
On rating alone Northern Colorado Bears are 8.4 points better (#134 vs #226 of 240), and WYO add 3.1 for home field.
Who has the edge
Model: UNCO by 5.4
Rating
Clear edge
UNCO
UNCO rated 8.4 points better on Elo (#226 vs #134).
Home & rest
Clear edge
WYO
WYO gets 3.1 points for home field.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
UNCO
WYO −22.0 per game over the last five, UNCO −4.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: UNCO by 5.4
Northern Colorado BearsWyoming Cowboys
1430 Elo · #134
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
UNCO +8.4 pts
1278 Elo · #226
road
Home field
WYO +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
even
7d
−5.7 pts vs WYO D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
UNCO +2.3 pts
−8.0 pts vs UNCO D
L · −4.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
UNCO +9.0 pts
L · −22.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| UNCO | WYO | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 0-1 |
| 17.0 | Points for / game | 13.0 |
| 21.0 | Points against / game | 35.0 |
| 0-0 / 0-1 | Home / road | 0-0 / 0-1 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 0-1 |
| 0-1 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| L | Last 5 | L |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| UNCO | WYO | |
|---|---|---|
| 1430 | Elo | 1278 |
| #134 of 240 | Rank | #226 of 240 |
| −2.7 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | −9.9 |
| −2.0 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +3.0 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1271 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- UNCO +8.4 pts
- Home field
- WYO +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- -0.3 pts on the total
- Model margin
- UNCO by 5.4
- Model total
- 43.0 vs —
Market · 2 books
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- UNCO +329 · WYO -1267
- Best price
- UNCO +331 kalshi · WYO -967 kalshi
| Book | WYO spread | Total | UNCO ML | WYO ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | — | — | +331 | -967 |
| polymarketus | — | — | +326 | -1567 |
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.