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Robert Morris Colonials
0-1 last yr · #148 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM ET
InfoCision Stadium · 78° · Sunny
Akron Zips
0-1 · #224 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline RMU +216 · AKR -8932 books · best RMU +317 polymarketus · AKR -458 kalshi
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
RMU +216
58%
model margin RMU by 3.5
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 52.8
The read
On rating alone Robert Morris Colonials are 6.9 points better (#148 vs #224 of 240), and AKR add 3.1 for home field; AKR carry a rest edge worth 0.3.
Who has the edge
Model: RMU by 3.5
Rating
Clear edge
RMU
RMU rated 6.9 points better on Elo (#224 vs #148).
Home & rest
Clear edge
AKR
AKR gets 3.1 points for home field and AKR 0.3 for rest.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
AKR
AKR −22.0 per game over the last five, RMU −42.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: RMU by 3.5
Robert Morris ColonialsAkron Zips
1415 Elo · #148
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
RMU +6.9 pts
1290 Elo · #224
road
Home field
AKR +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
AKR +0.3 pts
9d
−3.0 pts vs AKR D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
AKR +1.7 pts
−1.2 pts vs RMU D
L · −42.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
AKR +10.0 pts
L · −22.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| RMU | AKR | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 0-1 |
| 3.0 | Points for / game | 16.0 |
| 45.0 | Points against / game | 38.0 |
| 0-0 / 0-1 | Home / road | 0-0 / 0-1 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 0-1 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| L | Last 5 | L |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| RMU | AKR | |
|---|---|---|
| 1415 | Elo | 1290 |
| #148 of 240 | Rank | #224 of 240 |
| −5.7 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | −3.9 |
| −2.7 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | −2.7 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1586 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- RMU +6.9 pts
- Home field
- AKR +3.1 pts
- Rest
- AKR +0.3 pts
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- RMU by 3.5
- Model total
- 52.8 vs —
Market · 2 books
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- RMU +216 · AKR -893
- Best price
- RMU +317 polymarketus · AKR -458 kalshi
| Book | AKR spread | Total | RMU ML | AKR ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | — | — | +114 | -458 |
| polymarketus | — | — | +317 | -1329 |
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.