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Wofford Terriers
0-1 last yr · #131 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 12:00 PM ET
Zoeller Field at Dix Stadium · 67° · Partly sunny
Kent State Golden Flashes
0-1 · #235 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline WOF +170 · KENT -9112 books · best WOF +170 polymarketus · KENT -870 kalshi
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
WOF +170
69%
model margin WOF by 8.8
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 58.3
The read
On rating alone Wofford Terriers are 11.8 points better (#131 vs #235 of 240), and KENT add 3.1 for home field.
Who has the edge
Model: WOF by 8.8
Rating
Clear edge
WOF
WOF rated 11.8 points better on Elo (#235 vs #131).
Home & rest
Clear edge
KENT
KENT gets 3.1 points for home field.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
WOF
KENT −57.0 per game over the last five, WOF −32.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: WOF by 8.8
Wofford TerriersKent State Golden Flashes
1432 Elo · #131
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
WOF +11.8 pts
1219 Elo · #235
road
Home field
KENT +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
even
7d
+3.6 pts vs KENT D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
WOF +5.9 pts
−2.3 pts vs WOF D
L · −32.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
WOF +12.5 pts
L · −57.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| WOF | KENT | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 0-1 |
| 6.0 | Points for / game | 0.0 |
| 38.0 | Points against / game | 57.0 |
| 0-0 / 0-1 | Home / road | 0-0 / 0-1 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 0-1 |
| 0-1 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| L | Last 5 | L |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| WOF | KENT | |
|---|---|---|
| 1432 | Elo | 1219 |
| #131 of 240 | Rank | #235 of 240 |
| −3.8 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | −5.3 |
| −3.0 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | −7.4 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1585 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- WOF +11.8 pts
- Home field
- KENT +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- WOF by 8.8
- Model total
- 58.3 vs —
Market · 2 books
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- WOF +170 · KENT -911
- Best price
- WOF +170 polymarketus · KENT -870 kalshi
| Book | KENT spread | Total | WOF ML | KENT ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | — | — | — | -870 |
| polymarketus | — | — | +170 | -953 |
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.