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Old Dominion Monarchs
1-0 · #39 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 12:00 PM ET
Lane Stadium · 68° · Intermittent clouds
Virginia Tech Hokies
1-0 · #112 Elo
Spread VT -14.5Total 51.5Moneyline ODU +455 · VT -6503 books · best ODU +660 fanduel · VT -625 draftkings
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
ODU +455
66%
model margin ODU by 6.9
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
ODU +14.5
57%
21.4 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 51.5
51%
model total 48.0
The read
On rating alone Old Dominion Monarchs are 10.0 points better (#39 vs #112 of 240), and VT add 3.1 for home field. The clearest mismatch is the passing game: ODU passing ranks #18, VT defends it at #128; the other way VT #112 into ODU's #9. The model lands on ODU by 6.9 against a market VT by 14.5, so the spread lean is ODU by 21.4 points — a lean, not an edge: against closing lines this model covers about 49%. On the total the model sees 48.0 against 51.5.
Who has the edge
Model: ODU by 6.9 · market VT by 14.5
Rating
Clear edge
ODU
ODU rated 10.0 points better on Elo (#112 vs #39).
Home & rest
Clear edge
VT
VT gets 3.1 points for home field.
Passing game
Clear edge
ODU
ODU passing ranks #18, VT defends it at #128; the other way VT #112 into ODU's #9.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Slight edge
ODU
ODU rushing ranks #61, VT defends it at #109; the other way VT #27 into ODU's #21.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Clear edge
ODU
ODU third-down conversion ranks #50, VT defends it at #123; the other way VT #73 into ODU's #26.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
VT
VT +70.0 per game over the last five, ODU +21.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
VT
Consensus has VT by 14.5; the model says ODU by 6.9.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: ODU by 6.9 · market VT by 14.5
Old Dominion MonarchsVirginia Tech Hokies
1627 Elo · #39
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
ODU +10.0 pts
1447 Elo · #112
road
Home field
VT +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
even
7d
−4.3 pts vs VT D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
ODU +0.4 pts
−4.7 pts vs ODU D
W · +21.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
VT +24.5 pts
W · +70.0
+5.9
SP+ (last season)Bill Connelly's SP+ from last season, the prior the college model starts each season from.
ODU +16.0 pts
−10.1
ODU +14.5
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
VT +14.5 pts
VT -14.5
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸ODU passing-down ppa (#9) against a VT defense ranked #134 at stopping it
- ▸ODU defense (#11 pass success rate allowed) against a VT offense ranked #130
- ▸ODU passing ppa / play (#18) against a VT defense ranked #128 at stopping it
- ▸ODU defense (#16 yards / pass attempt allowed) against a VT offense ranked #120
- ▸ODU defense (#9 passing ppa / play allowed) against a VT offense ranked #112
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
Old Dominion Monarchs offense vs Virginia Tech Hokies defense
ranks of 135| ODU off | VT def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 41% | 46% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 72% | 72% | · |
| Plays / game | 56 | 61 | · |
| Possession / game | 28:30 | 30:46 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.41#18 | +0.42#128 | ODU |
| Pass success rate | 44%#45 | 47%#123 | ODU |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.82#6 | 1.54#56 | ODU |
| Yards / pass attempt | 8.5#18 | 7.8#111 | ODU |
| Completion % | 58%#111 | 67%#127 | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 4.5%#126 | 2.6%#55 | VT |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.14#61 | +0.18#109 | ODU |
| Rush success rate | 47%#29 | 45%#101 | ODU |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.96#71 | 0.98#77 | · |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 3.19#22 | 3.01#94 | ODU |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 16%#23 | 16%#106 | ODU |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 64%#111 | 80%#121 | · |
| Yards / rush | 5.6#8 | 4.4#83 | ODU |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.15#51 | +0.19#117 | ODU |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.50#9 | +0.51#134 | ODU |
| Third-down conversion | 41%#50 | 45%#123 | ODU |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.94#47 | 4.34#125 | ODU |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 13.8%#46 | 13.2%#117 | ODU |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.85#127 | 0.50#135 | · |
Virginia Tech Hokies offense vs Old Dominion Monarchs defense
ranks of 135| VT off | ODU def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 43% | 47% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 67% | 70% | · |
| Plays / game | 59 | 56 | · |
| Possession / game | 29:14 | 31:30 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.15#112 | +0.09#9 | ODU |
| Pass success rate | 34%#130 | 34%#11 | ODU |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.70#21 | 1.46#31 | · |
| Yards / pass attempt | 6.3#120 | 6.1#16 | ODU |
| Completion % | 56%#120 | 60%#50 | ODU |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 1.3%#15 | 2.4%#62 | VT |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.20#27 | +0.01#21 | · |
| Rush success rate | 48%#24 | 45%#100 | VT |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.97#64 | 0.78#3 | ODU |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 3.33#12 | 2.91#73 | VT |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 15%#17 | 21%#40 | · |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 70%#81 | 62%#13 | ODU |
| Yards / rush | 5.0#28 | 3.7#34 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.09#80 | −0.05#9 | ODU |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.33#58 | +0.21#31 | ODU |
| Third-down conversion | 39%#73 | 34%#26 | ODU |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.68#69 | 3.03#19 | ODU |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 16.7%#96 | 18.6%#17 | ODU |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.25#69 | 2.00#7 | ODU |
Season
| ODU | VT | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 1-0 |
| 31.0 | Points for / game | 73.0 |
| 10.0 | Points against / game | 3.0 |
| 1-0 / 0-0 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 0-1 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| W | Last 5 | W |
Power ratings
| ODU | VT | |
|---|---|---|
| 1627 | Elo | 1447 |
| #39 of 240 | Rank | #112 of 240 |
| +1.4 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +6.1 |
| +10.8 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +5.7 |
| 1412 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1431 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| ODU | VT | |
|---|---|---|
| −6.9 | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | +8.6 |
| 0.246 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.172 |
| 0.027 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.280 |
| 46% / 39% | Success rate (off / def) | 42% / 46% |
| 1.30 / 1.06 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.25 / 1.26 |
| 544 | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | 769 |
| 9% | Returning production | 37% |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
| 2025 | ODU 45 at VT 26 | ODU · ODU covered |
| 2024 | VT 37 at ODU 17 | VT · VT covered |
| 2023 | ODU 17 at VT 36 | VT · VT covered |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- ODU +10.0 pts
- Home field
- VT +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- ODU by 6.9
- Model total
- 48.0 vs 51.5
Market · 3 books
- Spread
- VT -14.5
- Total
- 51.5
- Moneyline
- ODU +455 · VT -650
- Best price
- ODU +660 fanduel · VT -625 draftkings
| Book | VT spread | Total | ODU ML | VT ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| draftkings | -14.5 (-112) | 51.5 (-115/-105) | +455 | -625 |
| fanduel | — | — | +660 | -1050 |
| hardrockbet | — | — | +450 | -650 |
Spreadopened VT -14.5 · now VT -14.5
Totalopened 51.5 · now 51.5
Consensus of the books we track, hourly, since we first priced the game. The arrow on the spread is from the home side: ▲ means the home side is laying more.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.