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Howard Bison
0-1 last yr · #188 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 12:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · 75° · Sunny
Indiana Hoosiers
1-0 · #1 Elo
Spread —Total 43.5Moneyline HOW +4573 · IU -52762 books · best HOW +4573 kalshi · IU -5276 kalshi
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
IU -5276
98%
model margin IU by 38.0
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 43.5
55%
model total 57.1
The read
On rating alone Indiana Hoosiers are 35.0 points better (#1 vs #188 of 240), and IU add 3.1 for home field. On the total the model sees 57.1 against 43.5.
Who has the edge
Model: IU by 38.0
Rating
Clear edge
IU
IU rated 35.0 points better on Elo (#1 vs #188).
Home & rest
Clear edge
IU
IU gets 3.1 points for home field.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
IU
IU +36.0 per game over the last five, HOW −48.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: IU by 38.0
Howard BisonIndiana Hoosiers
1376 Elo · #188
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
IU +35.0 pts
2006 Elo · #1
road
Home field
IU +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
even
7d
−23.3 pts vs IU D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
IU +46.6 pts
+23.3 pts vs HOW D
L · −48.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
IU +42.0 pts
W · +36.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| HOW | IU | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 1-0 |
| 7.0 | Points for / game | 52.0 |
| 55.0 | Points against / game | 16.0 |
| 0-0 / 0-1 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 0-1 |
| 1-0 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| L | Last 5 | W |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| HOW | IU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1376 | Elo | 2006 |
| #188 of 240 | Rank | #1 of 240 |
| −4.6 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +18.4 |
| −4.9 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +18.7 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1695 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- IU +35.0 pts
- Home field
- IU +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- IU by 38.0
- Model total
- 57.1 vs 43.5
Market · 2 books
- Spread
- —
- Total
- 43.5
- Moneyline
- HOW +4573 · IU -5276
- Best price
- HOW +4573 kalshi · IU -5276 kalshi
| Book | IU spread | Total | HOW ML | IU ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | — | — | +4573 | -5276 |
| polymarketus | — | 43.5 (-270/+257) | — | — |
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.