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Merrimack Warriors at Delaware Blue Hens
Thu, Sep 3, 7:00 PM ET · Delaware StadiumFINAL 7–42Backtest · not lockedThis game finished before the model ran on it, so the call was reconstructed afterward from pre-game ratings. It counts in the backtest table on the track record, never in the locked record.
No line
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.✓
DEL
72%
model margin DEL by 10.4
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
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model total 57.8
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merrimack Warriors | 1328 | -9.5 | -5.1 | 1491 | 1 |
| Delaware Blue Hens | 1521 | 2.1 | -0.2 | 1358 | 1 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- DEL +133 Elo
- Home field
- DEL +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- DEL by 10.4
- Market spread
- —
- Model total
- 57.8 vs —
- Moneyline
- —
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.