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Morgan State Bears at Arizona State Sun Devils
Sat, Sep 5, 10:00 PM ET · Mountain America Stadium · 98° · Intermittent clouds
ASU -43.5 · O/U 52.5
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
ASU
78%
model margin ASU by 13.5
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
MORG +43.5
60%
30.0 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Coin flip
Under 52.5
50%
model total 51.5
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan State Bears | 1421 | -5.0 | -3.7 | — | 0 |
| Arizona State Sun Devils | 1609 | 2.6 | 6.8 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- ASU +188 Elo
- Home field
- ASU +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- ASU by 13.5
- Market spread
- ASU -43.5
- Model total
- 51.5 vs 52.5
- Moneyline
- —
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.