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Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at Arizona Wildcats
Sat, Sep 5, 9:30 PM ET · Casino Del Sol Stadium · 95° · Intermittent clouds
ARIZ -31.5 · O/U 58.5
NAU +2000 · ARIZ -6500
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
ARIZ -6500
81%
model margin ARIZ by 15.5
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
NAU +31.5
55%
16.0 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 58.5
54%
model total 49.1
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 1462 | -2.5 | 0.9 | — | 0 |
| Arizona Wildcats | 1686 | 5.2 | 9.6 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- ARIZ +224 Elo
- Home field
- ARIZ +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- ARIZ by 15.5
- Market spread
- ARIZ -31.5
- Model total
- 49.1 vs 58.5
- Moneyline
- NAU +2000 · ARIZ -6500
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.