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Lamar Cardinals at Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
Sat, Sep 5, 8:00 PM ET · Our Lady of Lourdes Stadium · 78° · Partly sunny
UL -20.5 · O/U 48.5
LAM +750 · UL -1200
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
UL -1200
65%
model margin UL by 6.9
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
LAM +20.5
55%
13.6 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 48.5
52%
model total 52.8
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Cardinals | 1431 | -4.6 | -2.2 | — | 0 |
| Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | 1501 | -2.1 | -0.3 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- UL +70 Elo
- Home field
- UL +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- UL by 6.9
- Market spread
- UL -20.5
- Model total
- 52.8 vs 48.5
- Moneyline
- LAM +750 · UL -1200
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.