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Northwestern State Demons at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
Sat, Sep 5, 7:30 PM ET · Joe Aillet Stadium · 94° · Partly sunny
LT -44.5 · O/U 56.5
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
LT
79%
model margin LT by 13.9
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
NWST +44.5
60%
30.6 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 56.5
52%
model total 61.4
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northwestern State Demons | 1365 | -6.6 | -15.0 | — | 0 |
| Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | 1559 | -1.3 | 2.7 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- LT +195 Elo
- Home field
- LT +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- LT by 13.9
- Market spread
- LT -44.5
- Model total
- 61.4 vs 56.5
- Moneyline
- —
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.