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Charleston Southern Buccaneers at Georgia Southern Eagles
Sat, Sep 5, 7:00 PM ET · Allen E. Paulson Stadium · 90° · Partly sunny w/ t-storms
GASO -28.5 · O/U 51.5
CHSO +1800 · GASO -5000
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
GASO -5000
75%
model margin GASO by 12.0
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
CHSO +28.5
56%
16.5 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Coin flip
Over 51.5
50%
model total 51.8
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charleston Southern Buccaneers | 1391 | -7.4 | -2.8 | — | 0 |
| Georgia Southern Eagles | 1552 | -0.3 | 0.4 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- GASO +162 Elo
- Home field
- GASO +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- GASO by 12.0
- Market spread
- GASO -28.5
- Model total
- 51.8 vs 51.5
- Moneyline
- CHSO +1800 · GASO -5000
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.