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Eastern Kentucky Colonels at Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Sat, Sep 5, 7:00 PM ET · AmFirst Stadium · 86° · Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms
JVST -22.5 · O/U 52.5
EKU +1100 · JVST -2100
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
JVST -2100
70%
model margin JVST by 9.0
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
EKU +22.5
55%
13.5 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Under 52.5
51%
model total 50.3
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eastern Kentucky Colonels | 1395 | -6.6 | -5.6 | — | 0 |
| Jacksonville State Gamecocks | 1502 | -4.4 | 1.3 | 1479 | 1 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- JVST +107 Elo
- Home field
- JVST +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- JVST by 9.0
- Market spread
- JVST -22.5
- Model total
- 50.3 vs 52.5
- Moneyline
- EKU +1100 · JVST -2100
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.