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Norfolk State Spartans at Old Dominion Monarchs
Sat, Sep 5, 6:00 PM ET · S.B. Ballard Stadium · 81° · 10 mph wind · 40% precip · Intermittent clouds
ODU -40.5 · O/U 52.5
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
ODU
86%
model margin ODU by 18.6
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
NORF +40.5
57%
21.9 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 52.5
51%
model total 49.4
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norfolk State Spartans | 1421 | -4.4 | -4.9 | — | 0 |
| Old Dominion Monarchs | 1702 | 2.1 | 10.2 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- ODU +280 Elo
- Home field
- ODU +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- ODU by 18.6
- Market spread
- ODU -40.5
- Model total
- 49.4 vs 52.5
- Moneyline
- —
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.