← College Football slate
Maine Black Bears at Appalachian State Mountaineers
Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM ET · Kidd Brewer Stadium · 78° · Partly sunny
APP -20.5 · O/U 53.5
ME +850 · APP -1450
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
APP -1450
58%
model margin APP by 3.6
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
ME +20.5
56%
16.9 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Coin flip
Under 53.5
50%
model total 52.8
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maine Black Bears | 1418 | -4.9 | -3.1 | — | 0 |
| Appalachian State Mountaineers | 1428 | -3.8 | -1.5 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- APP +10 Elo
- Home field
- APP +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- APP by 3.6
- Market spread
- APP -20.5
- Model total
- 52.8 vs 53.5
- Moneyline
- ME +850 · APP -1450
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.