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Fordham Rams at North Dakota State Bison
Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM ET · Fargodome · Indoors
NDSU -41.5 · O/U 54.5
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
NDSU
68%
model margin NDSU by 8.0
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
FOR +41.5
61%
33.5 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 54.5
52%
model total 58.8
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fordham Rams | 1456 | -1.8 | -5.5 | — | 0 |
| North Dakota State Bison | 1545 | 0.7 | 3.1 | 1568 | 1 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- NDSU +90 Elo
- Home field
- NDSU +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- Indoors
- Model margin
- NDSU by 8.0
- Market spread
- NDSU -41.5
- Model total
- 58.8 vs 54.5
- Moneyline
- —
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.