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The Citadel Bulldogs at Charlotte 49ers
Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM ET · Jerry Richardson Stadium · 96° · Partly sunny
CLT -20.5 · O/U 48.5
CIT +950 · CLT -1650
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
CIT +950
65%
model margin CIT by 6.7
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
CIT +20.5
59%
27.2 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Coin flip
Over 48.5
50%
model total 48.7
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Citadel Bulldogs | 1466 | -3.8 | -2.0 | — | 0 |
| Charlotte 49ers | 1291 | -8.0 | -1.5 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- CIT +175 Elo
- Home field
- CLT +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- CIT by 6.7
- Market spread
- CLT -20.5
- Model total
- 48.7 vs 48.5
- Moneyline
- CIT +950 · CLT -1650
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.