Probetrics — Sports Analytics
College Football slate
Rhode Island Rams at Temple Owls
Sat, Sep 5, 2:00 PM ET · Lincoln Financial Field · 80° · Mostly sunny
TEM -14.5 · O/U 51.5
URI +500 · TEM -700
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
TEM -700
61%
model margin TEM by 4.9
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
URI +14.5
53%
9.6 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 51.5
53%
model total 59.6

Power ratings

TeamEloOffDefSOSGP
Rhode Island Rams1407-3.1-5.30
Temple Owls1440-0.7-1.20

Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.

How the margin was built

Rating gap
TEM +32 Elo
Home field
TEM +3.1 pts
Rest
Even
Weather / roof
0.0 pts on the total
Model margin
TEM by 4.9
Market spread
TEM -14.5
Model total
59.6 vs 51.5
Moneyline
URI +500 · TEM -700

Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.