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Rhode Island Rams at Temple Owls
Sat, Sep 5, 2:00 PM ET · Lincoln Financial Field · 80° · Mostly sunny
TEM -14.5 · O/U 51.5
URI +500 · TEM -700
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
TEM -700
61%
model margin TEM by 4.9
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
URI +14.5
53%
9.6 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 51.5
53%
model total 59.6
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhode Island Rams | 1407 | -3.1 | -5.3 | — | 0 |
| Temple Owls | 1440 | -0.7 | -1.2 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- TEM +32 Elo
- Home field
- TEM +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- TEM by 4.9
- Market spread
- TEM -14.5
- Model total
- 59.6 vs 51.5
- Moneyline
- URI +500 · TEM -700
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.