Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playAlamodomeStadium scoring factor 124 (2nd of 134, 100 = league average) · 66.5 points a game in 20 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 60.2 points vs 53.7 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
advanced stats (garbage time excluded) and play-by-play · 2025 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2025 season · ranks of 135
ranks betterranks worseStronger27+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 135 (#1 = best)
TXST offensevsUTSA defense
TXST offense ranks better in 5 of 6 matchups (3 by a clear margin) · UTSA defense in 1
Passing · points added per playPoints added per pass play; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.35
#20Stronger
+0.19
#81
Rushing · points added per playPoints added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 74 places
+0.26
#5Stronger
+0.08
#79
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
46%
#23slight
35%
#29
Finishing drives · points per opportunityPoints per drive reaching the opponent's 40; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 95 places
4.42
#21Stronger
4.20
#116
Havoc · faced vs createdTackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups per play: faced by the offense, created by the defense.
12.2%
#16slight
18.5%
#18
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.31
#79
1.38
slight#57
UTSA offensevsTXST defense
UTSA offense ranks better in 5 of 6 matchups (4 by a clear margin) · TXST defense in 1
Passing · points added per playPoints added per pass play; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.24
#47Stronger
+0.21
#88
Rushing · points added per playPoints added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.17
#27Stronger
+0.06
#70
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
40%
#71slight
41%
#90
Finishing drives · points per opportunityPoints per drive reaching the opponent's 40; the defense's is what it allows.
4.23
#27Stronger
3.98
#98
Havoc · faced vs createdTackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups per play: faced by the offense, created by the defense.
16.0%
#85
15.7%
slight#69
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.Widest gap · 90 places
0.92
#20Stronger
0.92
#110
Every measure, ranked
29 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 135 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
TXST offenseUTSA defense
Points added / passExpected points added per pass play.favors TXST
+0.35#20
+0.19#81▼
Pass success rate
47%#25
40%#49
Pass explosivenessAverage points added on successful pass plays: how big the wins are.favors TXST
1.65#31
1.82#130
Yards / pass attemptfavors TXST
9.0#9
7.3#82▼
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. All plays.favors TXST
12.5%#24▼
11.5%#111▼
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.
Points in the 1st half:TXST scores 53% · allows 45%UTSA scores 55% · allows 48%league 52%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 5 in 2026, 12 in 2025
TXSTUTSAsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 15.1 scored
League 38% pass
TXST9 games
Scored16.1
Allowed18.3
Pass share33%
26–40% · 314 plays
UTSA11 games
Scored17.0
Allowed13.5
Pass share42%
37–46% · 295 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 13.2 scored
League 46% pass
TXST4 games
Scored25.0
Allowed11.3
Pass share24%
18–31% · 123 plays
UTSA0 games
None in the last 17.
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.2 scored
League 52% pass
TXST4 games
Scored8.5
Allowed19.0
Pass share48%
34–63% · 126 plays
UTSA6 games
Scored13.2
Allowed15.7
Pass share57%
52–62% · 188 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (a sack counts as a carry, as college stats score it; a few plays whose names could not be matched are missing). The range counts games, not plays. League = every tracked college team's last 17 games (138 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 5 in 2026, 12 in 2025
TXSTat the half: led 9 · within 3 in 4 · trailed 4 (of 17)
8.4
5.5Q1
10.2
8.1Q2
18.6scored13.5allowedleague 14.6
1st half
5.4
7.5Q3
10.5
8.1Q4
UTSAat the half: led 11 · within 3 in 0 · trailed 6 (of 17)
8.5
5.3Q1
10.9
7.7Q2
19.4scored13.0allowedleague 14.6
1st half
6.9
7.2Q3
8.8
7.1Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 6.1 · Q2 8.5 · Q3 6.0 · Q4 7.0
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
TXSTUTSA
7-6
Record
7-6
36.5
Points for / game
35.5
29.0
Points against / game
28.8
5-2 / 2-4
Home / road
5-2 / 2-4
W W W W L
Last 5
W L W W L
2025 season only (not a rolling window) · 13 games each.
AdvancedEfficiency and talent measures for both teams; green marks the better side.◷History
TXSTUTSA
+2.3
Team rating (this season)Points better (+) or worse (−) than an average team.
+3.7
0.287
Offense points added / playPoints the offense adds per play, garbage time excluded.
0.179
0.119
Defense points added / playPoints added per play the defense allows; lower is better.
0.100
46% / 41%
Success rate (off / def)
45% / 40%
1.34 / 1.32
Explosiveness (off / def)
1.34 / 1.37
612
Talent compositeRoster talent rating from recruiting; higher = more talent.
662
22%
Returning production
84%
2025 season to date, garbage time excluded.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
TXSTUTSA
2-3 · 40%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
4-7 · 36%
Last two seasons (2024–2025), TXST 26 games, UTSA 26. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2023Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
2TXSTseriesUTSA2
Avg total points
57.0
Meetings
4
They have met every season in our history.
2026UTSA 31 at TXST 26UTSA
2025TXST 43 at UTSA 36TXST
2024UTSA 10 at TXST 49TXST
2023TXST 13 at UTSA 20UTSA
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
