The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
51%Texas State BobcatsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
TXST by 0.3market UTSA by 4.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
74.5 pointsmarket 64.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Texas State Bobcats at 51% to win, with the market at UTSA by 4.5.
TXST has the advantage in rushing: TXST rushing ranks #5, UTSA defends it at #79; the other way UTSA #27 into TXST's #70.
TXST has the advantage in big plays: TXST pass explosiveness ranks #31, UTSA defends it at #130; the other way UTSA #95 into TXST's #96.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours UTSA. UTSA turnovers / game ranks #20, TXST defends it at #110; the other way TXST #79 into UTSA's #57. The pick still lands on TXST because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: TXST has the better last five games by 7.6 points a game (UTSA +11.4, TXST +19.0).
Home field is with UTSA, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it TXST by 0.3 against a market UTSA by 4.5: 4.8 points of daylight in TXST's favour. The model's total is 74.5 against a line of 64.5: 10.0 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model TXST by 0.3 · market UTSA by 4.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
TXST passing ranks #20, UTSA defends it at #81; the other way UTSA #47 into TXST's #88.
Rushing game
TXST
Slight advantage
TXST rushing ranks #5, UTSA defends it at #79; the other way UTSA #27 into TXST's #70.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
TXST points / scoring opportunity ranks #21, UTSA defends it at #116; the other way UTSA #27 into TXST's #98.
Big plays
TXST
Slight advantage
TXST pass explosiveness ranks #31, UTSA defends it at #130; the other way UTSA #95 into TXST's #96.
Pass protection & rush
UTSA
Clear advantage
UTSA sack rate ranks #23, TXST defends it at #87; the other way TXST #79 into UTSA's #80.
Ball security
UTSA
Clear advantage
UTSA turnovers / game ranks #20, TXST defends it at #110; the other way TXST #79 into UTSA's #57.
Form (last 5)
TXST
Clear advantage
UTSA +11.4 per game over the last five, TXST +19.0.
Market
UTSA
Clear advantage
Consensus has UTSA by 4.5; the model says TXST by 0.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket UTSA by 4.5 · model TXST by 0.3
Mkt UTSA 4.5
Model TXST 0.3
← TXST by 28tieUTSA by 28 →
9.7% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 64.5 · model 74.5
Mkt 64.5
Model 74.5
24 pts6096 pts
14.9% of FBS games finish between 64.5 and 74.5. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
