Lightning at Mammoth: NHL, Oct 24, 2026

Model pick: Mammoth (57%), locked Oct 24; Mammoth won 5–4 (graded a hit).

Tampa Bay Lightning

Utah Mammoth

4–5

Final (OT)

Win probability

TB 43%

57% UTAH

Utah Mammoth won, 5–4. The pick was Utah Mammoth at 57% — correct.

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Margin the probability implies

UTAH by 0.4

goals

UTAH win probability

57%

overtime and shootout included

Right at this confidence

54%

Won 28 of 52 at 55–60% · 90% range 43–65%

Winner picks only; a game decided in overtime or a shootout counts like any other. Where books price a game, the win probability is the market's no-vig price; the team ratings decide games nobody has priced. The ratings alone were tested on games they were not tuned on, and every pick is locked before puck drop and graded after the final, in the public record. How the model is tested →

Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.