Maple Leafs at Oilers: NHL, Oct 24, 2026

Model pick: Oilers (57%), locked Oct 24; Maple Leafs won 7–2 (graded a miss).

Toronto Maple Leafs

Edmonton Oilers

7–2

Final

Win probability

TOR 43%

57% EDM

Toronto Maple Leafs won, 7–2. The pick was Edmonton Oilers at 57% — incorrect.

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Margin the probability implies

EDM by 0.4

goals

EDM win probability

57%

overtime and shootout included

Right at this confidence

55%

Won 29 of 53 at 55–60% · 90% range 44–65%

Winner picks only; a game decided in overtime or a shootout counts like any other. Where books price a game, the win probability is the market's no-vig price; the team ratings decide games nobody has priced. The ratings alone were tested on games they were not tuned on, and every pick is locked before puck drop and graded after the final, in the public record. How the model is tested →

Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.