Lightning at Avalanche: NHL, Oct 23, 2026

Model pick: Avalanche (52%), locked Oct 23; Avalanche won 6–3 (graded a hit).

Tampa Bay Lightning

Colorado Avalanche

3–6

Final

Win probability

TB 48%

52% COL

Colorado Avalanche won, 6–3. The pick was Colorado Avalanche at 52% — correct.

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Margin the probability implies

COL by 0.1

goals

COL win probability

52%

overtime and shootout included

Right at this confidence

56%

Won 42 of 75 at 50–55% · 90% range 47–65%

Winner picks only; a game decided in overtime or a shootout counts like any other. Where books price a game, the win probability is the market's no-vig price; the team ratings decide games nobody has priced. The ratings alone were tested on games they were not tuned on, and every pick is locked before puck drop and graded after the final, in the public record. How the model is tested →

Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.