Flyers at Sabres: NHL, Oct 21, 2026

Model pick: Sabres (65%), locked Oct 21; Flyers won 3–1 (graded a miss).

Philadelphia Flyers

Buffalo Sabres

3–1

Final

Win probability

PHI 35%

65% BUF

Philadelphia Flyers won, 3–1. The pick was Buffalo Sabres at 65% — incorrect.

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Margin the probability implies

BUF by 0.8

goals

BUF win probability

65%

overtime and shootout included

Right at this confidence

77%

Won 30 of 39 at 60–65% · 90% range 64–86%

Winner picks only; a game decided in overtime or a shootout counts like any other. Where books price a game, the win probability is the market's no-vig price; the team ratings decide games nobody has priced. The ratings alone were tested on games they were not tuned on, and every pick is locked before puck drop and graded after the final, in the public record. How the model is tested →

Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.