Lightning at Golden Knights: NHL, Oct 20, 2026

Model pick: Golden Knights (50%), locked Oct 20; Lightning won 6–2 (graded a miss).

Tampa Bay Lightning

Vegas Golden Knights

6–2

Final

Win probability

TB 50%

50% VGK

Tampa Bay Lightning won, 6–2. The pick was Vegas Golden Knights at 50% — incorrect.

Save image Square

VGK win probability

50%

overtime and shootout included

Right at this confidence

56%

Won 42 of 75 at 50–55% · 90% range 47–65%

Winner picks only; a game decided in overtime or a shootout counts like any other. Where books price a game, the win probability is the market's no-vig price; the team ratings decide games nobody has priced. The ratings alone were tested on games they were not tuned on, and every pick is locked before puck drop and graded after the final, in the public record. How the model is tested →

Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.