Sharks at Maple Leafs: NHL, Oct 19, 2026

Model pick: Maple Leafs (55%), locked Oct 19; Maple Leafs won 3–1 (graded a hit).

San Jose Sharks

Toronto Maple Leafs

1–3

Final

Win probability

SJ 45%

55% TOR

Toronto Maple Leafs won, 3–1. The pick was Toronto Maple Leafs at 55% — correct.

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Margin the probability implies

TOR by 0.3

goals

TOR win probability

55%

overtime and shootout included

Right at this confidence

54%

Won 28 of 52 at 55–60% · 90% range 43–65%

Winner picks only; a game decided in overtime or a shootout counts like any other. Where books price a game, the win probability is the market's no-vig price; the team ratings decide games nobody has priced. The ratings alone were tested on games they were not tuned on, and every pick is locked before puck drop and graded after the final, in the public record. How the model is tested →

Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.