Senators at Flyers: NHL, Oct 17, 2026

Model pick: Senators (59%), locked Oct 17; Flyers won 3–1 (graded a miss).

Ottawa Senators

Philadelphia Flyers

1–3

Final

Win probability

OTT 59%

41% PHI

Philadelphia Flyers won, 3–1. The pick was Ottawa Senators at 59% — incorrect.

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Margin the probability implies

OTT by 0.5

goals

OTT win probability

59%

overtime and shootout included

Right at this confidence

53%

Won 27 of 51 at 55–60% · 90% range 42–64%

Winner picks only; a game decided in overtime or a shootout counts like any other. Where books price a game, the win probability is the market's no-vig price; the team ratings decide games nobody has priced. The ratings alone were tested on games they were not tuned on, and every pick is locked before puck drop and graded after the final, in the public record. How the model is tested →

Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.