Islanders at Maple Leafs: NHL, Oct 17, 2026

Model pick: Maple Leafs (54%), locked Oct 17; Islanders won 4–1 (graded a miss).

New York Islanders

Toronto Maple Leafs

4–1

Final

Win probability

NYI 46%

54% TOR

New York Islanders won, 4–1. The pick was Toronto Maple Leafs at 54% — incorrect.

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Margin the probability implies

TOR by 0.2

goals

TOR win probability

54%

overtime and shootout included

Right at this confidence

56%

Won 42 of 75 at 50–55% · 90% range 47–65%

Winner picks only; a game decided in overtime or a shootout counts like any other. Where books price a game, the win probability is the market's no-vig price; the team ratings decide games nobody has priced. The ratings alone were tested on games they were not tuned on, and every pick is locked before puck drop and graded after the final, in the public record. How the model is tested →

Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.