Penguins at Avalanche: NHL, Oct 16, 2026

Model pick: Avalanche (65%), locked Oct 16; Avalanche won 5–2 (graded a hit).

Pittsburgh Penguins

Colorado Avalanche

2–5

Final

Win probability

PIT 35%

65% COL

Colorado Avalanche won, 5–2. The pick was Colorado Avalanche at 65% — correct.

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Margin the probability implies

COL by 0.8

goals

COL win probability

65%

overtime and shootout included

Right at this confidence

77%

Won 30 of 39 at 60–65% · 90% range 64–86%

Winner picks only; a game decided in overtime or a shootout counts like any other. Where books price a game, the win probability is the market's no-vig price; the team ratings decide games nobody has priced. The ratings alone were tested on games they were not tuned on, and every pick is locked before puck drop and graded after the final, in the public record. How the model is tested →

Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.