The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
74%Buffalo BillsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
BUF by 8.6market BUF by 13
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
50.1 pointsmarket 44.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Buffalo Bills at 74% to win, with the market at BUF by 13.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Easton Stick starting for Los Angeles Chargers, and the model prices that in.
BUF has the advantage in passing: BUF passing ranks #2, LAC defends it at #24; the other way LAC #17 into BUF's #6.
BUF has the advantage in rushing: BUF rushing ranks #2, LAC defends it at #18; the other way LAC #32 into BUF's #23.
Rest: LAC has 3 more days since its last game (LAC 9d, BUF 6d).
Form: BUF has the better last five games by 19.0 points a game (LAC -13.8, BUF +5.2).
Home field is with LAC, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it BUF by 8.6 against a market BUF by 13: 4.4 points of daylight in LAC's favour. The model's total is 50.1 against a line of 44.5: 5.6 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model BUF by 8.6 · market BUF by 13
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
BUF
Clear advantage
BUF passing ranks #2, LAC defends it at #24; the other way LAC #17 into BUF's #6.
Rushing game
BUF
Clear advantage
BUF rushing ranks #2, LAC defends it at #18; the other way LAC #32 into BUF's #23.
Third down & red zone
BUF
Slight advantage
BUF third-down conversion ranks #2, LAC defends it at #14; the other way LAC #17 into BUF's #18.
Big plays
BUF
Slight advantage
BUF explosive pass rate ranks #21, LAC defends it at #29; the other way LAC #15 into BUF's #9.
Pass protection & rush
BUF
Clear advantage
BUF sack rate ranks #1, LAC defends it at #11; the other way LAC #12 into BUF's #5.
Ball security
BUF
Clear advantage
BUF turnovers / game ranks #22, LAC defends it at #22; the other way LAC #19 into BUF's #2.
Form (last 5)
BUF
Clear advantage
LAC −13.8 per game over the last five, BUF +5.2.
Market
BUF
Clear advantage
Consensus has BUF by 13; the model says BUF by 8.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket BUF by 13 · model BUF by 8.6
Mkt BUF 13
Model BUF 8.6
← BUF by 28tieLAC by 28 →
4.3% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 13, a number 2.3% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 44.5 · model 50.1
Mkt 44.5
Model 50.1
20 pts4672 pts
15.7% of NFL games finish between 44.5 and 50.1. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
