RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Sep 18, 2022
Adrian Hill
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
11.7
≈ in line with the league average (11.4)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
96.4
≈ in line with the league average (94.1)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
9.4
≈ in line with the league average (9.0)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 492 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playSoFi Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 103 (10th of 32, 100 = league average) · 47.1 points a game in 52 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2023 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2023 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
BUF offensevsLAC defense
BUF offense ranks better in 5 of 6 matchups (5 by a clear margin) · LAC defense in 0 · 1 even
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 22 places
+0.17
#2Stronger
+0.06
#24
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 16 places
+0.03
#2Stronger
−0.07
#18
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
50%
#2Stronger
38%
#14
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
64%
#4Stronger
54%
#13
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
3.6%
#1Stronger
7.2%
#11
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.· even
1.42
#22
1.12
#22
LAC offensevsBUF defense
LAC offense ranks better in 2 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · BUF defense in 4 (4 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.00
#17
−0.07
Stronger#6
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.23
#32
−0.06
Stronger#23
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
39%
#17slight
39%
#18
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
57%
#14Stronger
57%
#20
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
6.0%
#12
7.7%
Stronger#5
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.Widest gap · 17 places
1.18
#19
1.68
Stronger#2
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
BUF offenseLAC defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors BUF
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:BUF scores 48% · allows 58%LAC scores 46% · allows 55%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
BUFLACsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
BUF5 games
Scored11.8
Allowed10.6
Pass share35%
30–40% · 152 plays
LAC4 games
Scored13.5
Allowed6.8
Pass share33%
27–38% · 138 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
BUF5 games
Scored15.0
Allowed12.0
Pass share53%
43–63% · 138 plays
LAC6 games
Scored8.3
Allowed8.3
Pass share46%
36–57% · 169 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
BUF7 games
Scored18.1
Allowed7.1
Pass share51%
45–58% · 280 plays
LAC7 games
Scored11.1
Allowed12.6
Pass share66%
60–72% · 221 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
BUFat the half: led 5 · within 3 in 5 · trailed 7 (of 17)
3.9
5.1Q1
10.0
8.4Q2
13.9scored13.5allowedleague 11.4
1st half
6.1
2.3Q3
9.3
7.1Q4
LACat the half: led 4 · within 3 in 6 · trailed 7 (of 17)
4.2
5.8Q1
5.1
5.9Q2
9.3scored11.7allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.4
3.9Q3
5.2
5.8Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
BUFLAC
12-7
Record
5-12
26.6
Points for / game
20.4
18.7
Points against / game
23.4
8-3 / 4-4
Home / road
2-7 / 3-5
L W W W W
Last 5
L L L L L
2023 season only (not a rolling window) · 17–19 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
BUFLAC
0.119
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.066
-0.038
EPA / play allowed
0.012
247
Pass yards / game
254
135
Rush yards / game
97
217
Pass yards allowed
269
112
Rush yards allowed
113
1.4 / 1.9
Turnovers / takeaways
0.9 / 1.4
1.4 / 2.8
Sacks allowed / made
2.5 / 2.8
21.3
First downs / game
17.2
49
Penalty yards / game
43
+9.1 · #2 of 52
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
−5.2 · #42 of 52
2023 season to date · 17–19 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
BUFLAC
1-2 · 33%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
2-12 · 14%
Last two seasons (2022–2023), BUF 37 games, LAC 35. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
3BUFseriesLAC3
Avg total points
48.5
Meetings
6
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (6 of the 15 seasons in our history). BUF have won the last 3.
2026LAC 16 at BUF 24BUF
2023BUF 24 at LAC 22BUF
2020LAC 17 at BUF 27BUF
2018LAC 31 at BUF 20LAC
2017BUF 24 at LAC 54LAC
2014LAC 22 at BUF 10LAC
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Stefon DiggsWR17728.9%
Dalton KincaidTE10216.7%
Gabe DavisWR8113.2%
James CookRB6310.3%
Khalil ShakirWR579.3%
Dawson KnoxTE396.4%
Latavius MurrayRB284.6%
Trent SherfieldWR254.1%
Deonte HartyWR233.8%
Ty JohnsonRB101.6%
Quintin MorrisTE30.5%
Damien HarrisRB20.3%
Reggie GilliamRB10.2%
Andy IsabellaWR10.2%
Keenan AllenWR15024.4%
Austin EkelerRB7412.1%
Gerald EverettTE7011.4%
Quentin JohnstonWR6710.9%
Josh PalmerWR619.9%
Donald ParhamTE416.7%
Alex EricksonWR294.7%
Mike WilliamsWR264.2%
Stone SmarttTE213.4%
Jalen GuytonWR213.4%
Derius DavisWR172.8%
Keelan DossWR132.1%
Joshua KelleyRB122.0%
Isaiah SpillerRB61.0%
Simi FehokoWR20.3%
Elijah DotsonRB20.3%
Nick VannettTE10.2%
Justin HerbertQB10.2%
Buffalo Bills2024–25 seasons
Los Angeles Chargers2024–25 seasons
