The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
61%Los Angeles RamsSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
LAR by 3.7market LAR by 4
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
44.5 pointsmarket 45.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Los Angeles Rams at 61% to win, with the market at LAR by 4.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Derek Carr starting for New Orleans Saints, and the model prices that in.
LAR has the advantage in big plays: LAR explosive rush rate ranks #20, NO defends it at #25; the other way NO #26 into LAR's #15.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours NO. NO turnovers / game ranks #4, LAR defends it at #30; the other way LAR #7 into NO's #1. The pick still lands on LAR because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: NO has the better last five games by 11.2 points a game (LAR +3.4, NO +14.6).
Home field is with LAR, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it LAR by 3.7 against a market LAR by 4: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 44.5 against a line of 45.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model LAR by 3.7 · market LAR by 4
ⓘMost of these areas favor NO, but the model still picks LAR. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
NO
Slight advantage
NO passing ranks #14, LAR defends it at #21; the other way LAR #8 into NO's #5.
Rushing game
NO
Slight advantage
NO rushing ranks #15, LAR defends it at #20; the other way LAR #7 into NO's #3.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
NO third-down conversion ranks #15, LAR defends it at #17; the other way LAR #8 into NO's #4.
Big plays
LAR
Slight advantage
LAR explosive rush rate ranks #20, NO defends it at #25; the other way NO #26 into LAR's #15.
Pass protection & rush
LAR
Slight advantage
LAR sack rate ranks #6, NO defends it at #29; the other way NO #7 into LAR's #23.
Ball security
NO
Clear advantage
NO turnovers / game ranks #4, LAR defends it at #30; the other way LAR #7 into NO's #1.
Form (last 5)
NO
Clear advantage
LAR +3.4 per game over the last five, NO +14.6.
Market
LAR
Clear advantage
Consensus has LAR by 4; the model says LAR by 3.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket LAR by 4 · model LAR by 3.7
Mkt LAR 4
Model LAR 3.7
← NO by 28tieLAR by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. The market is on 4, a number 4.9% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 45.5 · model 44.5
Mkt 45.5
Model 44.5
20 pts4672 pts
2.4% of NFL games finish between 45.5 and 44.5. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
