RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Sep 11, 2022
Brad Rogers
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
12.1
≈ in line with the league average (11.5)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
104.1
≈ in line with the league average (94.5)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
9.8
≈ in line with the league average (9.1)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 507 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playSoFi Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 97 (25th of 32, 100 = league average) · 44.1 points a game in 53 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2023 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2023 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
NO offensevsLAR defense
NO offense ranks better in 6 of 6 matchups (3 by a clear margin) · LAR defense in 0
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.03
#14Stronger
+0.03
#21
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.09
#15slight
−0.06
#20
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
39%
#15slight
39%
#17
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
54%
#17slight
57%
#19
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.Widest gap · 16 places
5.4%
#7Stronger
6.2%
#23
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.Widest gap · 26 places
0.94
#4Stronger
0.83
#30
LAR offensevsNO defense
LAR offense ranks better in 2 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · NO defense in 4 (1 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.09
#8
−0.07
slight#5
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.01
#7
−0.15
slight#3
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
42%
#8
35%
slight#4
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
60%
#8slight
51%
#9
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.Widest gap · 23 places
5.3%
#6Stronger
5.4%
#29
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
0.94
#7
1.71
Stronger#1
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
NO offenseLAR defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors NO
+0.03#14▲
+0.03#21▲
Pass success rate
45%#18
45%#14
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.favors NO
8.0%#16▲
9.1%#24
Yards / dropback
6.2#17
6.3#20
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
8.3
9.0
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
13%
14%
Short throws (≤5 air)
54%
49%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.
+1.9#11▲
−2.4#7▲
YAC / completionfavors LAR
4.4#31
4.9#9▲
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors NO
5.4%#7
6.2%#23▲
Scramble rate
1.8%
5.0%
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors NO
1.8%#9▼
1.6%#25▼
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 34 · M 19 · R 47
L 39 · M 21 · R 40
LAR offenseNO defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.
+0.09#8▲
−0.07#5▲
Pass success ratefavors NO
45%#14
41%#6▲
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.favors LAR
10.5%#4
8.5%#17▲
Yards / dropbackfavors LAR
6.7#6
6.1#12▲
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
7.9
8.4
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
11%
13%
Short throws (≤5 air)
52%
49%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors NO
−2.7#26▲
−4.7#2▲
YAC / completionfavors LAR
5.8#4▲
5.6#26▲
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors LAR
5.3%#6▲
5.4%#29▼
Scramble rate
3.1%
6.5%
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors NO
2.1%#14▲
3.2%#6
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 40 · M 21 · R 39
L 38 · M 17 · R 46
New Orleans Saints · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
2023 season
Chris Olave · 138 (23.8%)Alvin Kamara · 86 (14.9%)Rashid Shaheed · 75 (13.0%)Michael Thomas · 64 (11.1%)Juwan Johnson · 59 (10.2%)Taysom Hill · 40 (6.9%)Foster Moreau · 25 (4.3%)Jamaal Williams · 20 (3.5%)A.T. Perry · 18 (3.1%)Lynn Bowden · 16 (2.8%)Kendre Miller · 11 (1.9%)Keith Kirkwood · 9 (1.6%)Jimmy Graham · 7 (1.2%)Tony Jones · 6 (1.0%)Adam Prentice · 3 (0.5%)Jordan Mims · 2 (0.3%)
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:NO scores 39% · allows 61%LAR scores 52% · allows 49%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
NOLARsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
NO0 games
None in the last 17.
LAR10 games
Scored14.2
Allowed12.8
Pass share50%
42–58% · 318 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
NO7 games
Scored13.0
Allowed6.4
Pass share49%
38–60% · 224 plays
LAR3 games
Scored9.0
Allowed13.7
Pass share54%
42–67% · 111 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
NO10 games
Scored11.9
Allowed10.6
Pass share66%
61–70% · 337 plays
LAR4 games
Scored19.0
Allowed7.5
Pass share64%
53–75% · 135 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
NOat the half: led 0 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 10 (of 17)
2.0
6.4Q1
5.9
7.6Q2
7.9scored14.1allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.4
4.3Q3
6.6
4.2Q4
LARat the half: led 10 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 4 (of 17)
7.0
4.1Q1
8.5
7.2Q2
15.5scored11.3allowedleague 11.4
1st half
6.1
4.9Q3
7.8
6.3Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
NOLAR
9-8
Record
10-8
23.6
Points for / game
23.7
19.2
Points against / game
22.3
5-3 / 4-5
Home / road
5-3 / 5-5
W W L W W
Last 5
L W W W W
2023 season only (not a rolling window) · 17–18 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
NOLAR
-0.029
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
0.055
-0.089
EPA / play allowed
-0.004
249
Pass yards / game
259
102
Rush yards / game
117
222
Pass yards allowed
248
120
Rush yards allowed
105
0.8 / 1.5
Turnovers / takeaways
0.9 / 1.0
2.1 / 2.0
Sacks allowed / made
2.0 / 2.4
18.3
First downs / game
18.6
50
Penalty yards / game
42
+0.5 · #23 of 52
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+4.8 · #7 of 52
2023 season to date · 17–18 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
NOLAR
5-10 · 33%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
4-17 · 19%
Last two seasons (2022–2023), NO 34 games, LAR 35. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
3NOseriesLAR7
Avg total points
50.2
Meetings
10
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (9 of the 15 seasons in our history). LAR have won the last 3.
2025NO 10 at LAR 34LAR
2024LAR 21 at NO 14LAR
2023NO 22 at LAR 30LAR
2022LAR 20 at NO 27NO
2019NO 9 at LAR 27LAR
2018LAR 26 at NO 23PlayoffsLAR
2018LAR 35 at NO 45NO
2017NO 20 at LAR 26LAR
All 10 meetings
2016LAR 21 at NO 49NO
2013NO 16 at LAR 27LAR
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Chris OlaveWR13823.8%
Alvin KamaraRB8614.9%
Rashid ShaheedWR7513.0%
Michael ThomasWR6411.1%
Juwan JohnsonTE5910.2%
Taysom HillTE406.9%
Foster MoreauTE254.3%
Jamaal WilliamsRB203.5%
A.T. PerryWR183.1%
Lynn BowdenWR162.8%
Kendre MillerRB111.9%
Keith KirkwoodWR91.6%
Jimmy GrahamTE71.2%
Tony JonesRB61.0%
Adam PrenticeFB30.5%
Jordan MimsRB20.3%
Puka NacuaWR17028.9%
Cooper KuppWR10417.7%
Tyler HigbeeTE7112.1%
Tutu AtwellWR6811.5%
Kyren WilliamsRB498.3%
Demarcus RobinsonWR457.6%
Van JeffersonWR152.5%
Darrell HendersonRB142.4%
Ben SkowronekWR132.2%
Davis AllenTE132.2%
Ronnie RiversRB81.4%
Brycen HopkinsTE71.2%
Austin TrammellWR71.2%
Tyler JohnsonWR30.5%
Royce FreemanRB20.3%
New Orleans Saints2024–25 seasons
Los Angeles Rams2024–25 seasons
