The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
68%Dallas CowboysSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
DAL by 6.5market DAL by 6.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
42.5 pointsmarket 43
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Dallas Cowboys at 68% to win, with the market at DAL by 6.5.
DAL has the advantage in passing: DAL passing ranks #3, NE defends it at #17; the other way NE #31 into DAL's #8.
Home field is with DAL, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it DAL by 6.5 against a market DAL by 6.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 42.5 against a line of 43: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model DAL by 6.5 · market DAL by 6.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
DAL
Clear advantage
DAL passing ranks #3, NE defends it at #17; the other way NE #31 into DAL's #8.
Rushing game
=
Even
DAL rushing ranks #10, NE defends it at #2; the other way NE #20 into DAL's #12.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
DAL third-down conversion ranks #1, NE defends it at #7; the other way NE #31 into DAL's #15.
Big plays
=
Even
DAL explosive pass rate ranks #11, NE defends it at #13; the other way NE #31 into DAL's #19.
Pass protection & rush
DAL
Clear advantage
DAL sack rate ranks #10, NE defends it at #28; the other way NE #25 into DAL's #8.
Ball security
DAL
Clear advantage
DAL turnovers / game ranks #6, NE defends it at #28; the other way NE #29 into DAL's #13.
Form (last 5)
DAL
Slight advantage
DAL −2.0 per game over the last five, NE −4.8.
Market
DAL
Clear advantage
Consensus has DAL by 6.5; the model says DAL by 6.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket DAL by 6.5 · model DAL by 6.5
Mkt DAL 6.5
Model DAL 6.5
← NE by 28tieDAL by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 43 · model 42.5
Mkt 43
Model 42.5
20 pts4672 pts
Model and market agree on the total to within half a point. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
